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Multiple-scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volu...

By: F. Uboldi; A. Trevisan

Description: Independent researcher, Milan, Italy. The properties of the multiple-scale instabilities present in a non-hydrostatic forecast model are investigated. The model simulates intense convection episodes occurring in northern Italy. A breeding technique is used to construct ensembles of perturbations of the model trajectories aimed at representing the instabilities that are responsible for error growth on various timescales and space scales. By means of perf...

Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011.; Benettin, G., Galgani, L., Giorgilli, A., and Strelcyn, J.-M.: Lyapunov characteristic exponents for smooth dynamical systems and for Hamiltonian...

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On the Character of Cosmic Ray Variations at F>2X10-5 Hz : Volume ...

By: J. Torsti; E. O. Flückiger; K. Kudela; H. Debrunner

Description: Institute of Experimental Physics, SAS, Košice, Slovakia. We examine the time series of cosmic ray (CR) intensity recorded by two neutron monitors (NMs) at medium latitudes for scaling properties on time scales shorter than the diurnal variation. Scaling of the data with 10 sec as well as I min resolution is shown to be complicated, indicating that there is probably not a unique process governing the CR fluctuations in the whole interval studied. For T <...

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Self-organized Criticality: Does it Have Anything to Do with Criti...

By: D. L. Turcotte

Description: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Snee Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. Three aspects of complexity are fractals, chaos, and self-organized criticality. There are many examples of the applicability of fractals in solid-earth geophysics, such as earthquakes and landforms. Chaos is widely accepted as being applicable to a variety of geophysical phenomena, for instance, tectonics and mantle convection. Several sim...

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Searching for Chaotic Deterministic Features in Laboratory Water S...

By: Ph. Dussouillez; A. Ramamonjiarisoa; M. Joelson; Th. Dudok De Wit

Description: Laboratoire IRPHE-I0A, 163 Av. de Luminy, Marseille, France. The dynamic evolution of laboratory water surface waves has been studied within the framework of dynamical systems with the aim to identify stochastic or deterministic nonlinear features. Three different regimes are considered: pure wind waves, pure mechanical waves and mixed (wind and mechanical) waves. These three regimes show different dynamics. The results on wind waves do not clearly supp...

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Resonant Excitation of Coastal Kelvin Waves in the Two-layer Rotat...

By: V. Zeitlin

Description: Institut Universitaire de France, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR8539, CNRS – University P. and M. Curie, Paris, France. Resonant excitation of coastal Kelvin waves by free inertia–gravity waves impinging on the coast is studied in the framework of the simplest baroclinic model: two-layer rotating shallow water with an idealized straight coast. It is shown that, with respect to the previous results obtained with the one-layer model, new resona...

Fedorov, A. V. and Melville, W. K.: On the propagation and breaking of nonlinear Kelvin waves, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 2519–2531, 1995.; Fedoryuk, M. V.: Method of steepest descent, Nauka, Moscow, 1977.; Gill, A. E.: Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics, AP, London, 1982.; LeCunuder, A.: Excitation résonnante des ondes de Kelvin côtières dans le modèle Saint-Venant à deux couches en rotation, Master thesis, University P. and M. Curie, Paris, unpublished, 2013.; Reznik, G. M. and Ze...

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Characterization of Peak Flow Events with Local Singularity Method...

By: L. Wang; L. Li; Q. Cheng

Description: State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Beijing, China. Three methods, return period, power-law frequency plot (concentration-area) and local singularity index, are introduced in the paper for characterizing peak flow events from river flow data for the past 100 years from 1900 to 2000 recorded at 25 selected gauging stations on rivers in the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) area, Canada. First ...

Agterberg, F. P.: Multifractal modeling of the sizes and grades of giant and supergiant deposits, Int. Geol. Rev., 37, 1–8, 1995.; Bak, P., Tang, C., and Wiessenfeld, K.: Self-organized criticality: An explanation of 1/f noise, Phys. Rev. Lett., 59, 381–384, 1987.; Brutsaert, W. and Nieber, J. L.: Regionalized drought flow hydrographs from a mature glaciated plateau, Water Resour. Res., 13, 737–643, 1977.; Brown, D. M., Mckay, G. A., and Chapman, L. J.: The climate of so...

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Models for Strongly-nonlinear Evolution of Long Internal Waves in ...

By: T. Sakai; L. G. Redekopp

Description: Department of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-1191, USA. Models describing the evolution of long internal waves are proposed that are based on different polynomial approximations of the exact expression for the phase speed of uni-directional, fully-nonlinear, infinitely-long waves in the two-layer model of a density stratified environment. It is argued that a quartic KdV model, one that employ...

Amick, C. and Turner, R.: A global theory of internal waves in two-fluid systems., Trans. Am. Math. Soc., 298, 431–481, 1986.; Apel, J., Holbrook, J., Liu, A., and Tsai, J.: The Sulu Sea internal soliton experiment., J. Phys. Oceanogr., 15, 1625–1651, 1985.; Antenucci, J., Imberger, J., and Saggio, A.: Seasonal evolution of the basin-scale internal wave field in a large stratified lake., Limnol. Oceanogr., 45, 1621–1638, 2000.; Benjamin, T.: Internal waves of finite ampl...

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Testing for Nonlinearity in Radiocarbon Data : Volume 1, Issue 1 (...

By: C. P. Sonett; U. Schwarz; U. Parlitz; J. Kurths

Description: Max-Planck-Arbeitsgruppe Nichtlineare Dynamik, Universität Potsdam, Am neuen Palais, Postfach 601553, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. The radiocarbon record that has been extended from 7199 BC to 1891 AD is of fundamental importance to understand century-scale variations of solar activity. We have, therefore, studied how to extract information from dynamic reconstructions of this observational record.
Using some rather unusual methods of nonlinear dynami...

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Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Temperature and Altimeter D...

By: N. P. Kurkowski; M. M. Rienecker; D. A. Adamec; C. L. Keppenne

Description: Science Applications International Corporation, 4600 Powder Mill Road, Beltsville, Maryland 20705, USA. To compensate for a poorly known geoid, satellite altimeter data is usually analyzed in terms of anomalies from the time mean record. When such anomalies are assimilated into an ocean model, the bias between the climatologies of the model and data is problematic. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is modified to account for the presence of a forecast-mod...

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Nonlinear Compressional Electromagnetic Ion-cyclotron Wavepackets ...

By: I. Kourakis; P. K. Shukla

Description: Institut für Theoretische Physik IV, Fakultät für Physik und Astronomie, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, 44780 Bochum,. The parametric coupling between large amplitude magnetic field-aligned circularly polarized electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves and ponderomotively driven ion-acoustic perturbations in magnetized space plasmas is considered. A cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation for the modulated EMIC wave envelope is derived, and then solved analytical...

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Role of the Hydrological Cycle in Regulating the Planetary Climate...

By: T. N. Chase; K. M. Nordstrom; V. K. Gupta

Description: Colorado Research Associates, 3380 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA. We present the construction of a dynamic area fraction model (DAFM), representing a new class of models for an earth-like planet. The model presented here has no spatial dimensions, but contains coupled parameterizations for all the major components of the hydrological cycle involving liquid, solid and vapor phases. We investigate the nature of feedback processes with this m...

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Cosmic Rays and Stochastic Magnetic Reconnection in the Heliotail ...

By: P. Desiati; A. Lazarian

Description: Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA. Galactic cosmic rays are believed to be generated by diffusive shock acceleration processes in Supernova Remnants, and the arrival direction is likely determined by the distribution of their sources throughout the Galaxy, in particular by the nearest and youngest ones. Transport to Earth through the interstellar medium is expected to affect the cosmic ray pro...

Abbasi, R., Abdou, Y., Abu-Zayyad, T., Adams, J., Aguilar, J. A., Ahlers, M., Andeen, K., Auffenberg, J., Bai, X., Baker, M., and et al.: Measurement of the Anisotropy of Cosmic-ray Arrival Directions with IceCube, Astrophys. J. Lett., 718, L194–L198, doi:10.1088/2041-8205/718/2/L194, 2010.; Abbasi, R., Abdou, Y., Abu-Zayyad, T., Adams, J., Aguilar, J. A., Ahlers, M., Altmann, D., Andeen, K., Auffenberg, J., Bai,...

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Transformation of Internal Solitary Waves at the Deep and Shallow ...

By: O. D. Shishkina; J. Grue; J. K. Sveen

Description: Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. An interaction of internal solitary waves with the shelf edge in the time periods related to the presence of a pronounced seasonal pycnocline in the Red Sea and in the Alboran Sea is analysed via satellite photos and SAR images. Laboratory data on transformation of a solitary wave of depression while passing along the transverse bottom step were obtained in a tank with a ...

Armi, L. and Farmer, D. M.: The flow of Atlantic water through the Strait of Gibraltar, Prog. Oceanogr., 21, 1–105, 1988.; Baines, P. G.: Satellite observations of internal waves on the Australian North West Shelf, Aust. J. Mar. Fresh. Res., 32, 457–463, 1981.; Behairy, A. K. A., Sheppard, C. R. C., and El-Sayed, M. K.: A review of the geology of coral reefs in the Red sea, UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies, 152, 22–24, 1992.; Boegman, L., Ivey, G. N., and Imberger,...

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On the Mean-field Theory of the Karlsruhe Dynamo Experiment : Volu...

By: E. Apstein; M. Rheinhardt; H. Fuchs; K.-h. Rädler

Description: Astrophysical Institute Potsdam, An der Sternwarte 16, D-15482 Potsdam, Germany. In the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe an experiment has been constructed which demonstrates a homogeneous dynamo as is expected to exist in the Earth's interior. This experiment is discussed within the framework of mean-field dynamo theory. The main predictions of this theory are explained and compared with the experimental results.

Key words....

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Asymmetric Tide in Lake Vallunden (Spitsbergen) : Volume 20, Issue...

By: E. G. Morozov; A. V. Marchenko

Description: Svalbard University Center, Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen, Norway. We observed strongly asymmetric tide in a channel connecting the Van Mijen Fjord and Lake Vallunden in Spitsbergen. The channel is approximately 100 m long, 10 m wide, and 1–2 m deep. Asymmetric tide was also observed in the lake. The form of the semidiurnal tide is described by a combination of only three harmonics (M2, S2 and M4) with di...

Aubrey, D. G. and Speer, P. E.: A study of non-linear tidal propagation in shallow inlet/estuarine systems, Part I: Observations, Estuarine, Coast. Shelf Sci., 21, 185–205, 1985.; Boon, J. D. and Byrne, R. J.: On basin hypsometry and the morphodynamic response of coastal inlets, Marine Geol., 40, 27–48, 1981.; Blanton, J. O., Lin, G. Q., and Elston, S. A.: Tidal current asymmetry in shallow estuaries and tidal creeks, Cont. Shelf Res., 22, 1731–1743, 2002.; Caline, F.: C...

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Scaling Collapse and Structure Functions: Identifying Self-affinit...

By: G. Rowlands; N. W. Watkins; B. Hnat; S. C. Chapman

Description: Space and Astrophysics, University of Warwick, UK. Empirical determination of the scaling properties and exponents of time series presents a formidable challenge in testing, and developing, a theoretical understanding of turbulence and other out-of-equilibrium phenomena. We discuss the special case of self affine time series in the context of a stochastic process. We highlight two complementary approaches to the differenced variable of the data: i) att...

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Dromion Solutions for Nonlinear Electron Acoustic Waves in Space P...

By: G. S. Lakhina; A. Sen; S. S. Ghosh

Description: Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Dr. Nanabhai Moos Marg, Colaba, Mumbai, 400 005, India. Recent high resolution measurements of POLAR and FAST satellites have revealed two-dimensional coherent structures in the polar cap boundary layer (PCBL) region. Since the ion temperature is often observed to be greater than the electron temperature in this region, electron acoustic waves can exist as a normal mode of the plasma system. It is shown t...

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An Improved Arima Model for Precipitation Simulations : Volume 21,...

By: C. Wang; X. Lin; J. Kang; H. R. Wang

Description: College of Water Sciences, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, 100875, China. Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been widely used to calculate monthly time series data formed by interannual variations of monthly data or inter-monthly variation. However, the influence brought about by inter-monthly variations within each year is often ig...

Ahmad, S., Khan, I. H., and Parida, B. P.: Performance of stochastic approaches for forecasting river water quality, Water Res., 35, 4261–4266, 2001.; Box, G. E. P.: Models for forecasting seasonal and nonseasonal time series, in: Spectral Analysis of Time Series, edited by: Harris, B., Wiley, New York, 271–311, 1967.; Box, G. E. P.: Time Series Analysis Forecasting And Control, China Statistics Press, Beijing, China, 1997.; Ip, W. C., Wong, H., and Wang, S. G.: A GIC ru...

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Lyapunov, Floquet, and Singular Vectors for Baroclinic Waves : Vol...

By: R. M. Samelson

Description: College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, 104 Ocean Admin Bldg, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA. The dynamics of the growth of linear disturbances to a chaotic basic state is analyzed in an asymptotic model of weakly nonlinear, baroclinic wave-mean interaction. In this model, an ordinary differential equation for the wave amplitude is coupled to a partial differential equation for the zonal flow correction. The leading Lyap...

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Properties of Fast Solitary Structures : Volume 6, Issue 3/4 (30/1...

By: C. W. Carlson; L. Muschietti; I. Roth; J. P. McFadden; R. E. Ergun

Description: Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA. 94720, USA. We present detailed observations of electromagnetic waves and particle distributions from the Fast Auroral SnapshoT (FAST) satellite which reveal many important properties of large-amplitude, spatially-coherent plasma structures known as "fast solitary structures" or "electron phase space holes". Similar structures have been observed in several regions of the magnetosphere in...

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