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### Statistical Properties of Nonlinear One-dimensional Wave Fields : ...

##### By: D. Chalikov

Description: Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20 742–2465, USA. A numerical model for long-term simulation of gravity surface waves is described. The model is designed as a component of a coupled Wave Boundary Layer/Sea Waves model, for investigation of small-scale dynamic and thermodynamic interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. Statistical properties of nonlinear wave fields are investigated on a...

### Extreme Events and Long-range Correlations in Space Weather : Volu...

##### By: T. Veeramani; A. S. Sharma

Description: Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA. Space weather is driven by the solar wind and many geospace storms and substorms are natural hazards with considerable societal impact. The dynamical and statistical features of these events are complicated because of the turbulent nature of their driver, the solar wind. Large-scale data sets of geospace storms and substorms are analysed for this study of the inheren...

Altman, E. G. and Kantz, H.: Recurrence time analysis, long-term correlations, and extreme events, Phys. Rev. E, 71, 056106, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.71.056106, 2005. \bibitem[Baker and Allen(2000)] baker2000 Baker, D. N. and Allen, J. H.: Confluence of Natural Hazards: A Possible Scenario, Eos, Trans., Amer. Geophys. Union, 81, 254–256, 2000.; Consolini, C. and Chang, T. S.: Magnetic field topology and criticality in ...

### Effects of the Synoptic Scale Variability on the Thermohaline Circ...

##### By: M. N. Lorenzo; J. J. Taboada

Description: Group of Nonlinear Physics, Faculty of Physics, Univ. of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain. In this paper the effect of the synoptic scale variability is analyzed using a simple atmosphere-ocean coupled model. This high frequency variability has been taken into account in the model adding white gaussian noise in variables related to zonal and meridional temperature differences. Results show that synoptic scale frequency variabi...

### Higher-order Korteweg-de Vries Models for Internal Solitary Waves ...

##### By: E. Pelinovsky; O. Poloukhina; R. Grimshaw

Description: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK. A higher-order extension of the familiar Korteweg-de Vries equation is derived for internal solitary waves in a density- and current-stratified shear flow with a free surface. All coefficients of this extended Korteweg-de Vries equation are expressed in terms of integrals of the modal function for the linear long-wave theory. An illustrative example of a two-l...

### The Effect of Third-order Nonlinearity on Statistical Properties o...

##### By: E. M. Bitner-gregersen; M. Benoit; M. Onorato; A. Toffoli

Description: Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, Høvik, 1322, Norway. It is well established that third-order nonlinearity produces a strong deviation from Gaussian statistics in water of infinite depth, provided the wave field is long crested, narrow banded and sufficiently steep. A reduction of third-order effects is however expected when the wave energy is distributed on a wide range of directions. In water of arbitrary depth, on the other hand, third-order effec...

Ducrozet, G., Bonnefoy, F., Le Touzé, D., and Ferrant, P.: 3-D HOS simulations of extreme waves in open seas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 109–122, 2007.; Annenkov, S Y. and Shrira, V I.: Numerical modeling of water–wave evolution based on the Zakharov equation, J. Fluid. Mech., 449, 341–371, 2001.; Benjamin, T B.: Instability of periodic wave trains in nonlinear dispersive systems, Proc. Roy. Soc. London, A299, 59–75, 1967.; Clamond, D. and Grue, J.: A fast method ...

### One-dimensional Modelling of Upper Ocean Mixing by Turbulence Due ...

##### By: M. Ghantous; A. V. Babanin

Description: Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia. Mixing of the upper ocean affects the sea surface temperature by bringing deeper, colder water to the surface. Because even small changes in the surface temperature can have a large impact on weather and climate, accurately determining the rate of mixing is of central importance for forecasting. Although there are several mixing mechanisms, one that has until recently been overlooked is ...

Anis, A. and Moum, J. N.: Surface wave-turbulence interactions: scaling $\epsilon(z)$ near the sea surface, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 2025–2045, 1995.; Ardhuin, F. and Jenkins, A. D.: On the Interaction of Surface Waves and Upper Ocean Turbulence, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 551–557, 2006.; Babanin, A.: Breaking and Dissipation of Ocean Surface Waves, Cambridge University Press, 2011.; Ardhuin, F., Chapron, B., and Collard, F.: Observation of swell dissipation across oceans, G...

### Multiscaling and Joint Multiscaling Description of the Atmospheric...

##### By: R. Calif; F. G. Schmitt

Description: EA 4539, LARGE laboratoire en Géosciences et Énergies, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, 97170 P-á-P, France. We consider here wind speed time series and the aggregate output wind power from a wind farm. We study their scaling statistics in the framework of fully developed turbulence and Kolmogorov's theory. We estimate their Fourier power spectra and consider their scaling properties in the physical space. We show that the atmospheric wind speed ...

Anselmet, F., Gagne, Y., Hopfinger, E. J. and Antonia, R. A.: High order velocity structure functions in turbulent shear flows, J. Fluid Mech., 140, 63–89, 1984.; Apt, J.: The spectrum of power from wind turbines, J. Power Sources, 169, 369–374, 2007.; Arneodo, A., Baudet C., Belin, F., Benzi, R., Castaing, B., Chabaud, B., Chavarria, R., Cilibertoand, S., Camussi, R., Chillà, F., Dubrulle, B., Gagneand, Y., Hebral, B., Herweijer, J., Marchand, M., Maurer, J., Muzy, J. F...

### Whistler Oscillitons Revisited: the Role of Charge Neutrality? : V...

##### By: K. Sauer; J. F. McKenzie; T. Cattaert; F. Verheest; E. Dubinin

Description: Sterrenkundig Observatorium, Universiteit Gent, Krijgslaan 281, 9000 Gent, Belgium. When studying transverse modes propagating parallel to a static magnetic field, an apparent contradiction arises between the weakly nonlinear results obtained from the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation, predicting envelope solitons (where the amplitude is stationary in the wave frame, but the phase is not), and recent results for whistler oscillitons, indicating ...

### Recurrence and Interoccurrence Behavior of Self-organized Complex ...

##### By: R. Shcherbakov; D. L. Turcotte; J. B. Rundle; S. G. Abaimov

Description: Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California, 95616, USA. The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These...

Altmann, E. G., da Silva, E. C., and Caldas, I. L.: Recurrence time statistics for finite size intervals, Chaos, 14, 975–981, 2004.; Altmann, E. G. and Kantz, H.: Recurrence time analysis, long-term correlations, and extreme events, Phys. Rev. E, 71, 056106, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.71.056106, 2005.; Bak, P., Christensen, K., Danon, L., and Scanlon, T.: Unified scaling law for earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 88, 178501, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.178501, 2002.; Bak, P., Tang...

### Unstable Periodic Orbits and Attractor of the Barotropic Ocean Mod...

##### By: E. Kazantsev

Description: INRIA-Lorraine, projet NUMATH, Nancy, France. A numerical method for detection of unstable periodic orbits on attractors of nonlinear models is proposed.  The method requires similar techniques to data assimilation.  This fact facilitates its implementation for geophysical models.  This method was used to find numerically several low-period orbits for the barotropic ocean model in a square.  Some numerical particularities of application of this method a...

### Intensity of Convective Motions in Marine Atmospheric Boundary Lay...

##### By: M. I. Mityagina

Description: Space Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia. The paper focuses on the occurrence and development of coherent structures observed in the atmosphere above ocean under natural conditions. Microwave imaging radars are suggested as data take instruments. The phenomena of marine atmospheric cells and rolls onset, horizontal planform, aspect ratio and scaling phenomena are examined. Convective patterns manifested in radar images and...

Alpers, W. and Bruemmer, B.: Atmospheric boundary layer rolls observed by the synthetic aperture radar aboard the ERS-1 satellite, J Geophys. Res., 99, 12 613–12 621, 1994.; Bulatov, M. G., Kravtsov, Yu. A., Lavrova, O. Yu., Litovchenko, K. Ts., Mityagina, M. I., Raev, M. D., Sabinin, K. D., Trokhimovskii, Yu. G., Churyumov, A. N., and Shugan, I. V.: Physical mechanisms of aerospace radar imaging of the ocean, Physics-Uspekhi, 46(1), 63–79, 2003.; Churyumov, A. N., Kravt...

### Model Error in Weather Forecasting : Volume 8, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)

##### By: J. Barkmeijer; T. N. Palmer; L. Smith; D. Orrell

Description: Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, 24-29 St Giles’, Oxford OX1 3LB, UK. Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examp...

### Non-parametric Bayesian Mixture of Sparse Regressions with Applica...

##### By: J. Dy; Z. Obradovic; J. Ross; A. R. Ganguly; D. Das

Description: Sustainability and Data Sciences Lab, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. Climate projections simulated by Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used for assessing the impacts of climate change. However, the relatively coarse resolutions of GCM outputs often preclude their application to accurately assessing the effects of climate change on finer regional-scale phenomena. Downscaling of climate variables from coarser to finer regional scales usin...

Antoniak, C.: Mixtures of Dirichlet processes with applications to Bayesian nonparametric problems, Ann. Stat., 2, 1152–1174, 1974.; Basu, S., Bilenko, M., Banerjee, A., and Mooney, R.: Probabilistic semi-supervised clustering with constraints, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 71–98, 2006.; Bader, D. C., Covey, C., Gutkowski Jr., W. J., Held, I. M., Kunkel, K. E., Miller, R. L., Tokmakian, R. T., and Zhang, M. H.: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations, US Clima...

### A Probabilistic Approach to Heterogeneity in Space Plasmas: the Ca...

##### By: B. Bavassano; P. De Michelis; G. Consolini

Description: INAF-Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, 00133 Roma, Italy. Since the early 90s it was shown that Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of small scale differences (fluctuations) of several quantities in space plasmas display significant departures from Gaussianity. The non-Gaussian shape of PDFs was ascribed to intermittency and discussed in the framework of intermittent MHD turbulence. Here, we put the attention to the PDF of magnetic fi...

Angelopoulos, V., Mukai, T., and Kokubun, S.: Evidence for intermittency in Earth's plasma sheet and implications for self-organized criticality, Phys. Plasmas, 6, 4161–4168, 1999.; Bavassano, B., Pietropaolo, E., and Bruno, R.: Alfvénic fluctuations in newborn polar solar wind, Ann. Geophys., 23, 1513–1520, 2005.; Bavassano, B., Pietropaolo, E., and Bruno, R.: Cross-helicity and residual energy in solar wind turbulence – Radial evolution and latitudinal dependence in th...

### Northern Hemisphere Patterns of Phase Coherence Between Solar/Geom...

##### By: D. Novotná; M. Paluš

Description: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, 182 07 Prague 8, Czech Republic. Beginning from the 1950's, Paluš and Novotná (2009) observed statistically significant phase coherence among oscillatory modes with the period of approximately 7–8 years detected in monthly time series of sunspot numbers, geomagnetic activity aa index, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and near-surface air temperature fr...

Gabor, D.: Theory of Communication, J. IEE London, 93(3), 429–457, 1946.; Camp, Ch. D. and Tung, K. K.: Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14703, doi:10.1029/2007GL030207, 2007.; Da Costa, E. D. and de Verdiere, A. C.: The 7.7-year North Atlantic Oscillation, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 797–817, 2002.; De Jager, C.: Solar forcing of clim...

### Classification of Probability Densities on the Basis of Pearson’s ...

Description: Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie, Max-Planck-Str. 2, D-37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany. An important task for the problem of coronal heating is to produce reliable evaluation of the statistical properties of energy release and eruptive events such as micro-and nanoflares in the solar corona. Different types of distributions for the peak flux, peak count rate measurements, pixel intensities, total energy flux or emission measures increas...

### A Universal Mirror Wave-mode Threshold Condition for Non-thermal S...

##### By: N. Schupfer; M. P. Leubner

Description: Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Innsbruck, Austria. Magnetic fluctuations are recognized in a large variety of space plasmas by increasingly high resolution, in situ observations as mirror wave mode structures. A typical requirement for the excitation of mirror modes is a dominant perpendicular pressure in a high-beta plasma environment. Contrary, we demonstrate from a realistic kinetic analysis how details of the vel...

### Direct and Inverse Cascades in the Geodynamo : Volume 15, Issue 6 ...

##### By: P. Hejda; M. Reshetnyak

Description: Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Acad. Sci, 123995 Moscow, Russia. The rapid rotation of planets causes cyclonic thermal turbulence in their cores which may generate the large-scale magnetic fields observed outside the planets. We investigate numerically a model based on the geodynamo equations in simplified geometry, which enables us to reproduce the main features of small-scale geostrophic flows in physical and wave vector spaces. ...

Alexakis, A., Mininni, P. D., and Pouquet, A.: Turbulent cascades, transefer, and scale interactions in magentohydrodynamics, New J. Phys., 9, 1–20, 2007.; Batchelor, G. K.: The theory of homogeneous turbulence, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1953.; Buffett, B.: A comparison of subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulations of convection in the Earth's core, Geophys. J. Int., 153, 753–765, 2003.; Busse, F. H.: Thermal instabilities in rapidly rotating systems, J...

### Lagrangian Descriptors and the Assessment of the Predictive Capaci...

##### By: A. M. Mancho; S. Wiggins; C. Mendoza

Description: ETSI Navales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Arco de la Victoria 4, 28040 Madrid, Spain. We use a recently developed Lagrangian transport tool, Lagrangian descriptors, to compare the transport properties of data distributed by AVISO and numerical simulations obtained from the HYCOM model in the Yucatán–Florida current system. Our data correspond to the months from June through August 2010. Structures obtained from HYCOM are noisier than th...

Andrade-Canto, F., Sheinbaum, J., and Zavala Sansón, L.: A Lagrangian approach to the Loop Current eddy separation, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 85–96, doi:10.5194/npg-20-85-2013, 2013.; Beron-Vera, F. J., Olascoaga, M. J., and Goni, G. J.: Surface Ocean Mixing Inferred from Different Multisatellite Altimetry Measurements, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 2466–2480, 2010.; Bleck, R.: An oceanic general circulation model fram...

### Calibration of a Radiocarbon Age : Volume 19, Issue 3 (19/06/2012)

##### By: D. J. Keenan

Description: The Limehouse Cut, London E14 6N, UK. The calibration of a radiocarbon age to a calendar date is reviewed. It is shown that the commonly-used programs for calibration sometimes give results that are significantly in error.

Bronk Ramsey, C.: Development of the radiocarbon calibration program, Radiocarbon, 43, 355–363, program available at: http://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/oxcal.html (last access: 11 June 2012), 2001.; Bronk Ramsey, C.: Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates, Radiocarbon, 51, 337–360, 2009.; Buck, C. E., Christen, J. A., and James, G. N.: BCal: an on-line Bayesian radiocarbon calibration tool, Internet Archaeology, 7, program available...

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