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Fractal Time Statistics of Ae-index Burst Waiting Times: Evidence ...

By: P. De Michelis; G. Consolini

Description: Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario – CNR, Roma, Italy. Recent observations and analyses evidenced that the magnetotail, as well as the magnetospheric dynamics are characterised by a scale-free behaviour and intermittence. These results, along with numerical simulations on cellular automata, suggest that the observed scale-invariance may be due to forced and/or self-organised criticality (FSOC), meaning that the magneto...

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Frustration and Disorder in Granular Media and Tectonic Blocks: Im...

By: A. Sornette; D. Sornette; P. Evesque

Description: Laboratoire de Physique de la Matière Condensée, CNRS URA 190, Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Parc Valrose, 06108 Nice Cedex 2, France. We present exploratory analogies and speculations on the mechanisms underlying the organization of faulting and earthquake in the earth crust. The mechanical properties of the brittle lithosphere at scales of the order or larger than a few kilometers are proposed to be analogous to those of non-cohesive granular med...

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On Closure Parameter Estimation in Chaotic Systems : Volume 19, Is...

By: A. Solonen; M. Laine; J. Tamminen; A. Ilin; E. Oja; J. Hakkarainen; H. Haario; H. Järvinen

Description: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland. Many dynamical models, such as numerical weather prediction and climate models, contain so called closure parameters. These parameters usually appear in physical parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes, and they act as tuning handles of the models. Currently, the values of these parameters are specified mostly manually, but the increasing complexity of the models calls for more algorithmic ...

Annan, J. and Hargreaves, J.: Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2077–2088, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2067, 2007.; Annan, J. D., Lunt, D. J., Hargreaves, J. C., and Valdes, P. J.: Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 363–371, doi:10.5194/npg-1...

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Distribution of Petrophysical Properties for Sandy-clayey Reservoi...

By: G. Ronquillo-jarillo; R. D. Arizabalo; F. Castrejón-vácio; E. Coconi-morales; D. Rivera-recillas; M. Lozada-zumaeta

Description: Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo, Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado, Eje Central Lázaro Cárdenas Norte 152, CP07730, México, D. F., México. The sandy-clayey hydrocarbon reservoirs of the Upper Paleocene and Lower Eocene located to the north of Veracruz State, Mexico, present highly complex geological and petrophysical characteristics. These reservoirs, which consist of sandstone and shale bodies within a depth interval ranging from 500 to 2000 m, were...

Abbaszadeh, M., Takano, O., Yamamoto, H., Shimamoto, T., Yazawa, N., Murguia, S. F., Zamora Guerrero, D. H., and Rodríguez de la Garza, F.: Integrated Geostatistical Reservoir Characterization of Turbidite Sandstone Deposits in Chicontepec Basin, Gulf of Mexico, SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 5–8 October 2003, Denver, Colorado, SPE, Paper Number 84052-MS, 2003.; Ambrose, W., Tyler, N., and Parsley, M.: Facies heterogeneity, pay continuity, and infill pot...

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Systematic Attribution of Observed Southern Hemisphere Circulation...

By: C. L. E. Franzke; I. Horenko; T. J. O'Kane; J. S. Risbey; D. P. Monselesan

Description: Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemisp...

Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, 2006.; Akaike, H.: Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle. 1998, in Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike, edited by: Parzen, E., Tanabe, K., and Kitagawa, G., Springer, New York, 1998.; Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone reco...

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Plankton Bloom Controlled by Horizontal Stirring : Volume 16, Issu...

By: I. Scheuring; Z. Neufeld; W. McKiver

Description: School of Mathematical Sciences & Complex and Adaptive Systems Laboratory, University College Dublin, Ireland. Here we show a simple mechanism in which changes in the rate of horizontal stirring by mesoscale ocean eddies can trigger or suppress plankton blooms and can lead to an abrupt change in the average plankton density. We consider a single species phytoplankton model with logistic growth, grazing and a spatially non-uniform carrying capacity. The ...

Bracco, A., Provenzale, A., and Scheuring, I.: Mesoscale vortices and the paradox of the plankton, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 267, 1795–1800, 2000.; Abraham, E. R.: The generation of plankton patchiness by turbulent stirring, Nature, 391, 577–580, 1998.; Abraham, E. R., Law, C. S., Boyd, P. W., Lavender, S. J., Maldonado, M. T., and Bowie, A. R.: Importance of stirring in the development of an iron-fertilized phytoplankton bloom. Nature, 407, 727–730, 2000.; Amemiya, T., Eno...

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Aeroelectric Structures and Turbulence in the Atmospheric Boundary...

By: E. A. Mareev; M. V. Shatalina; N. M. Shikhova; S. S. Zilitinkevich; S. V. Anisimov; S. V. Galichenko

Description: Borok Geophysical Observatory of Shmidt's Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS, 152742 Borok, Yaroslavl, Russia. Complex electrical measurements with the use of sodar data show that electric field pulsation analysis is useful for electrodynamics/turbulence monitoring under different conditions. In particular, the number of aeroelectric structures (AES) generated per hour is a convenient measure of the turbulence intensity. During convectively unstable p...

Anisimov, S. V., Bakastov, S. S., and Mareev, E. A.: Spatiotemporal structures of electric field and space charge in the surface atmospheric layer, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10603–10610, 1994.; Anisimov, S. V., Mareev, E. A., and Bakastov, S. S.: On the generation and evolution of aeroelectric structures in the surface layer, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 14359–14368, 1999.; Anisimov, S. V., Mareev, E. A., Shikhova, N. M., and Dmitriev, E. M.: Mechanisms of formation of pulsation s...

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The Effect of Nonlinear Ionospheric Conductivity Enhancement on Ma...

By: E. Spencer; S. Patra

Description: Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA. We introduce the effect of enhanced ionospheric conductivity into a low-order, physics-based nonlinear model of the nightside magnetosphere called WINDMI. The model uses solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters from the ACE satellite located at the L1 point to predict substorm growth, onset, expansion and recovery measured by the AL index rou...

Ahn, B.-H., Richmond, A., Kamide, Y., Kroehl, H., Emery, B., de la Beaujardie, O., and Akasofu, S.-I.: An ionospheric conductance model based on ground magnetic disturbance data, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14769–14780, 1998.; Akasofu, S.: Several Controversial Issues on Substorms, Space Sci. Rev., 113, 1–40, 2004.; Aksnes, A., Stadsnes, J., Bjordal, J., \O stgaard, N., Vondrak, R. R., Detrick, D. L., Rosenberg, T. J., Germany, G. A., and Chenette, D.: Instantaneous ionospher...

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Insight Into Earthquake Sequencing: Analysis and Interpretation of...

By: K. Vasudevan; M. S. Cavers

Description: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada. Directed graph representation of a Markov chain model to study global earthquake sequencing leads to a time-series of state-to-state transition probabilities that includes the spatio-temporally linked recurrent events in the record-breaking sense. A state refers to a configuration comprised of zones with either the occurrence or non-occurrence of an earthq...

Allan, D. W.: Statistics of atomic frequency standards, Ptoc. IEEE, 54, 221–230, 1966.; Barnes, J. A. and Allan, D. W.: A statistical model of flicker noise, Ptoc. IEEE, 54, 176–178, 1966.; Bird, P.: An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 4, 1027, doi:10.1029/2001GC000252, 2003.; Bohnenstiehl, D. R., Tolstoy, M., Smith, D. K., Fox, C. G., and Dziak, R. P.: Time-clustering behavior of sprea...

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Fractal Analysis for the Ulf Data During the 1993 Guam Earthquake ...

By: Y. Ida; M. Hayakawa

Description: Department of Electronic Engineering, The University of Electro-Communications, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu, Tokyo, 182-8585, Japan. An extremely large earthquake (with magnitude of 8.2) happened on 8 August 1993 near the Guam island, and ultra-low-frequency (ULF) (frequency less than 1 Hz) electromagnetic fields were measured by 3-axis induction magnetometers at an observing station (with the epicentral distance of 65 km) with sampling frequency of 1 Hz. In...

Burlaga, L. F. and Klein, L. W.: Fractal structure of the interplanetary magnetic field, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 347–350, 1986.; Hayakawa, M. and Fujinawa, Y. (Eds.): Electromagnetic Phenomena Related to Earthquake Prediction, Terra Sci. Pub. Co., Tokyo, 667p, 1994.; Gotoh, K., Hayakawa, M., and Smirnova, N.: Fractal analysis of the gromagnetic data obtained at Izu peninsula, Japan in relation to the nearby earthquake swarm of June–August 2000, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci...

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Four-dimensional Ensemble Variational (4D-en-var) Data Assimilatio...

By: J. Bojarova; N. Gustafsson

Description: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden. A four-dimensional ensemble variational (4D-En-Var) data assimilation has been developed for a limited area model. The integration of tangent linear and adjoint models, as applied in standard 4D-Var, is replaced with the use of an ensemble of non-linear model states to estimate four-dimensional background error covariances over the assimilation time window. The computational cos...

Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J.-F.: The ISBA land surface parameterization scheme, Global Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, 1996.; Bergthorsson, P. and Döös, B.: Numerical weather map analysis, Tellus, 7, 329–340, 1955.; Berre, L.: Estimation of synoptic and mesoscale forecast error covariances in a limited area model, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 644–667, 2000.; Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J., and Majumdar, S. J.: Adaptive Sampling with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Part I: T...

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Sampling and Analysis of Chemical Element Concentration Distributi...

By: F. P. Agterberg

Description: Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ont. K1A 0E8, Canada. Existing sampling techniques applied within known orebodies, such as sampling along mining drifts, yield element concentration values for larger blocks of ore if they are extended into their surroundings. The resulting average concentration values have relatively small extension variance. These techniques can be used for multifractal modeling as well as ore reserve estimation a...

Agterberg, F. P.: Fractals, multifractals and change of support, in: Geostatistics for the Next Century, edited by: Dimitrakopoulos, R., Kluwer, Dordrecht, 223–234, 1994.; Agterberg, F. P.: New applications of the model of de Wijs in regional geochemistry, Math. Geol., 39, 1–25, 2007a.; Agterberg, F. P.: Mixtures of multiplicative cascade models in geochemistry, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 14, 201–209, doi:10.5194/npg-14-...

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On the Dependence of Third- and Fourth-order Moments on Stability ...

By: A. Maurizi

Description: Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate via Gobetti 101,I-40129 Bologna, Italy. Analysis of published data on the third- and fourth-order moments of vertical velocity in the atmospheric boundary layer is performed, and it is shown that turbulence is non-Gaussian even when almost symmetric. It is also proposed that the relationship between third- and fourth-order moments depends on stability. New data from a wind tunnel experiment roughly support t...

Alberghi, S., Maurizi, A., and Tampieri, F.: Relationship between the vertical velocity skewness and kurtosis observed during sea-breeze convection, J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 885-889, 2002.; Anfossi, D., Ferrero, E., Sacchetti, D., and Trini Castelli, S.: Comparison among empirical probability density functions of the vertical velocity in the surface layer based on higher order correlations, Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 82, 193-218, 1997.; Baskaran, V., Smits, A J., and Joube...

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Using Magnetic Fluids to Simulate Convection in a Central Force Fi...

By: W.-g. Früh

Description: School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot Watt University, Riccarton, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK. Large-scale convection in planetary or stellar interiors plays a significant role but it is difficult to reproduce the central force field of those systems in experimental studies. A technique to approximate a central force field through the magnetic field from magnets acting on a magnetic liquid is presented. The thermomagnetic convection in a spheri...

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A Possible Theory for the Interaction Between Convective Activitie...

By: M. Takahashi; Y. H. Ding; X. Y. Shen; N. Zhao

Description: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China. Theoretical studies usually attribute convections to the developments of instabilities such as the static or symmetric instabilities of the basic flows. However, the following three facts make the validities of these basic theories unconvincing. First, it seems that in most cases the basic flow with balance property cannot exist as the exact soluti...

Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H.: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, Part I., J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674–701, 1974.; Charney, J. G.: The use of the primitive equation of motion in numerical prediction, Tellus, {{7}} 22–26, 1955.; Drazin, P. G.: Hydrodynamical stability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981.; Emanuel, K. A., Neelin, J. D., and Bretherton, C. S.:  On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres, Quart. J. Roy...

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Electrostatic Shock Properties Inferred from Akr Fine Structure : ...

By: J. Jasperse; R. A. Treumann; M. Berthomier; R. Pottelette

Description: CETP-CNRS, 4 Rue de Neptune, F-94107 Saint-Maur des Fossés, France. The auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) consists of a large number of fast drifting elementary radiation events that have been interpreted as travelling electron holes resulting from the nonlinear evolution of electron-acoustic waves. The elementary radiation structures sometimes become reflected or trapped in slowly drifting larger structures where the parallel electric ...

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Oscillating Grids Turbulence Generator for Turbulent Transport Stu...

By: I. Rogachevskii; N. Kleeorin; T. Elperin; A. Kapusta; A. Krein; A. Eidelman

Description: The Pearslstone Center for Aeronautical Engineering Studies, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, P. O. Box 653, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel. An oscillating grids turbulence generator was constructed for studies of two new effects associated with turbulent transport of particles, turbulent thermal diffusion and clustering instability. These effects result in formation of large-scale and small-scale inhomogene...

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Stochastic Resonance: from Climate to Biology : Volume 17, Issue 5...

By: R. Benzi

Description: Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, 00133 Roma, Italy. In this lecture, I will review some basic aspects of the mechanism of stochastic resonance, first introduced as a possible mechanism to explain long term climatic variation. Since then, there have been many applications of stochastic resonance in physical and biological systems. I will show that in complex system, stochastic resonance can ...

Alley, R. B., Anandankrishnan, S., and Jung, P.: Stochastic resonance in the North Atlantic, Paleoceanography, 16, 190–198, 2001.; Benzi, R.: Flow Reversal in a Simple Dynamical Model of Turbulence, Phys. Rev. Lett., 95, 024502, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.024502, 2005.; Benzi, R. and Sutera, A.: Turbulence and Predictability in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Climate Dynamics, edited by: Ghil, M., Benzi, R., and Parisi, G., Varenna Summer School LXXXVIII 1983, 1985.; Benz...

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The Soverato Flood in Southern Italy: Performance of Global and Li...

By: F. Nerozzi; S. Tibaldi; C. Marsigli; T. Paccagnella; A. Montani; R. Buizza

Description: Regional Meteorological Service ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy. The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high-resolution version of EPS. For each configuration, three successive runs of ECMWF ensemble with the same verification time are gr...

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On the Predictability of Ice Avalanches : Volume 12, Issue 6 (30/0...

By: C. Birrer; W. A. Stahel; M. Funk; A. Pralong

Description: Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland. The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function mak...

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