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Cyclic Markov Chains with an Application to an Intermediate Enso M...

By: A. Timmermann; R. A. Pasmanter

Description: KNMI, Postbus 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, the Netherlands. We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimen...

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The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and the Running-in-plac...

By: J. A. Carton; B. R. Hunt; T. Miyoshi; K. Ide; S. G. Penny; G. A. Chepurin; E. Kalnay

Description: Applied Mathematics and Scientific Computation, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA. The most widely used methods of data assimilation in large-scale oceanography, such as the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) algorithm, specify the background error covariances and thus are unable to refine the weights in the assimilation as the circulation changes. In contrast, the more computationally expensive Ensemble Kalman Filters (EnKF) such as...

Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J., and Majumdar, S. J.: Adaptive Sampling with Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, Part I: Theoretical Aspects, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 420–436, 2001.; Bloom, S. C., Takacs, L. L., da Silva, A. M., and Ledvina, D.: Data Assimilation using Incremental Analysis Updates, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 1256–1271, 1996.; Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Garcia, H., Johnson, D. R., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Pitcher, T., Baranova, O. K., and Smolyar, I...

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Investigating the Connection Between Complexity of Isolated Trajec...

By: M. G. Brown; S. E. Scott; L. J. Pratt; I. I. Rypina

Description: Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA. It is argued that the complexity of fluid particle trajectories provides the basis for a new method, referred to as the Complexity Method (CM), for estimation of Lagrangian coherent structures in aperiodic flows that are measured over finite time intervals. The basic principles of the CM are explained and the CM is tested in a variety of examples, both ide...

Aref, H.: Stirring by chaotic advection, J. Fluid Mech., 143, 1–21, 1984.; Brown, M. G.: Phase space structure and fractal trajectories in 1 1/2 degree of freedom Hamiltonian systems whose time dependence is quasiperiodic, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 5, 69–74, doi:10.5194/npg-5-69-1998, 1998.; Deese, H. E., Pratt, L. J., and Helfrich, K. R.: A laboratory model of exchange and mixing between western boundary layers and s...

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Improving the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Using a Second-orde...

By: S. Zhang; L. Wang; G. Wu; X. Zhang; X. Liang; X. Zheng

Description: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. The Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) assimilation scheme has recently seen rapid development and wide application. As a specific implementation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the ETKF is computationally more efficient than the conventional EnKF. However, the current implementation of the ETKF stil...

Anderson, J. L.: An adaptive covariance inflation error correction algorithm for ensemble filters, Tellus A, 59, 210–224, 2007.; Anderson, J. L.: Spatially and temporally varying adaptive covariance inflation for ensemble filters, Tellus A, 61, 72–83, 2009.; Anderson, J. L. and Anderson, S. L.: A Monte Carlo implementation of the non-linear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 2741–2758, 1999.; Bishop, C. H. and Toth,...

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Tsallis and Levy Statistics in the Preparation of an Earthquake : ...

By: K. Eftaxias; Y. F. Contoyiannis

Description: Department of Physics and Chemistry, Techological Education Institute (TEI) of Chalkis, Greece. Precursory fracture induced electromagnetic (EM) emissions, rooted in opening cracks and ranging from MHz to kHz, with the MHz appearing earlier, are produced and detected both at laboratory and geophysical scale. Recently, we have proposed the following two epochs/stages model of EQ generation: (i) The final kHz part is triggered by the fracture of high streng...

Alemany, P. and Zanette, D.: Fractal random walks from a variational formalism for Tsallis entropies, Phys. Rev. E, 49, R956–R958, 1994.; Antoniou, N., Contoyiannis, Y., Diakonos, F., Karanikas, A., and Ktorides, C.: Pion production from a critical QCD phase, Nucl. Phys. A, 693, 799–824, 2001.; Baldovin, F. and Robledo, A.: Sensitivity to initial conditions at bifurcations in one-dimensional nonlinear maps: Rigorous nonextensive solutions, Europhys. Lett., 60, 518–524, 2...

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Long-term Changes in the North–south Asymmetry of Solar Activity: ...

By: R. V. Donner; N. Marwan; M. Small; Y. Zou; J. Kurths

Description: Department of Physics, East China Normal University, 200062 Shanghai, China. Solar activity is characterized by complex dynamics superimposed onto an almost periodic, approximately 11-year cycle. One of its main features is the presence of a marked, time-varying hemispheric asymmetry, the deeper reasons for which have not yet been completely uncovered. Traditionally, this asymmetry has been studied by considering amplitude and phase differences. Here, we...

Agnihotri, R., Dutta, K., Bhushan, R., and Somayajulu, B.: Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 198, 521–527, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00530-7, 2002.; Ahmadlou, M. and Adeli, H.: Visibility graph similarity: A new measure of generalized synchronization in coupled dynamic systems, Physica D, 241, 326–332,

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Comprehensive Analysis of Tornado Statistics in Comparison to Eart...

By: P. Névir; L. Schielicke

Description: Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Meteorologie, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany. Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variab...

Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., and Kagan, Y. Y.: The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79, 1439–1456, 1989.; Doswell III, C. A., Edwards, R., Thompson, R. L., Hart, J. A., and Crosbie, K. C.: A simple and flexible method for ranking severe weather events, Weather Forecast., 21, 939–951, 2006.; Doswell III, C. A., Brooks, H. E., and Dotzek, N.: On the implementation of the enhanced Fujita scale...

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On the Mean-field Theory of the Karlsruhe Dynamo Experiment : Volu...

By: E. Apstein; M. Rheinhardt; H. Fuchs; K.-h. Rädler

Description: Astrophysical Institute Potsdam, An der Sternwarte 16, D-15482 Potsdam, Germany. In the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe an experiment has been constructed which demonstrates a homogeneous dynamo as is expected to exist in the Earth's interior. This experiment is discussed within the framework of mean-field dynamo theory. The main predictions of this theory are explained and compared with the experimental results.

Key words....

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Spatial Random Downscaling of Rainfall Signals in Andean Heterogen...

By: A. Posadas; C. Jones; H. Heidinger; R. Quiroz; M. Carbajal; C. Yarlequé; L. A. Duffaut Espinosa; L. Carvalho

Description: Production Systems and the Environment Division, International Potato Center (CIP), Lima, Peru. Remotely sensed data are often used as proxies for indirect precipitation measures over data-scarce and complex-terrain areas such as the Peruvian Andes. Although this information might be appropriate for some research requirements, the extent at which local sites could be related to such information is very limited because of the resolution of the available ...

Aceituno, P. and Montecinos, A.: Circulation anomalies associated with dry and wet periods in the South American Altiplano, Proc. Fourth Int. Conf. on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Hobart, Australia, Am. Meteor. Soc., 330–331, 1993.; ANUSPLIN: The ANUSPLIN package, Version 4.4, http://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/research/products/anusplin-vrsn-44 (last access: 6 July 2015), 2007.; Baron, C., Sul...

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Solitary Wave in a Burridge-knopoff Model with Slip-dependent Fric...

By: Z. L. Wu; Y. T. Chen

Description: Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau, 100081 Beijing, China. A one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model with slip-dependent friction was studied to explore the possibility of a solitary wave solution existing for the problem of earthquake faulting. The result may be used as an alternative case of the crack model (e.g., Madariaga and Cochard, 1996) and the spring-block model with velocity-dependent friction (e.g., Carlson and La...

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Fourier Spectrum and Shape Evolution of an Internal Riemann Wave o...

By: T. Talipova; E. Pelinovsky; E. Kartashova

Description: Institute for Analysis, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria. The nonlinear deformation of long internal waves in the ocean is studied using the dispersionless Gardner equation. The process of nonlinear wave deformation is determined by the signs of the coefficients of the quadratic and cubic nonlinear terms; the breaking time depends only on their absolute values. The explicit formula for the Fourier spectrum of the deformed Riemann wave is derive...

Afanasyev, Ya. D. and Pelter, W. R.: On breaking internal waves over the sill in Knight Inlet, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A Mat., 457, 2799–2825, 2001.; Baines, P. G.: Topographic effects in stratified flows, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1995.; Chant, R. and Wilson, R.: Internal hydraulics and mixing in highly stratified estuary, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 14215–14222, 2000.; Choi, W. and Camassa, R.: Fully nonlinear internal waves in a two-fluid system, J. Fluid Mech....

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Magnetic Reconnection Associated Fluctuations in the Deep Magnetot...

By: Z. Vörös

Description: Institute of Astro- and Particle Physics, University of Innsbruck, Austria. On the basis of ARTEMIS two-probe mission magnetic reconnection (MR) outflow associated magnetic fluctuations and turbulence are analyzed on 19 February 2011. In the deep-tail, at distances between X = 45 – 51 RE, evidence for reconnection associated plasma sheet thinning was found, accompanied by heating of the plasma sheet. Correlated flow and field r...

Alexandrova, O., Saur, J., Lacombe, C., Mangeney, A., Mitchell, J., Schwartz, S. J., and Robert, P.: Universality of solar wind turbulence spectrum from MHD to electron scales, Phys. Rev. Lett., 103, 165003, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.165003, 2009.; Angelopoulos, V., Mitchell, D. G., McEntire, R. W., Williams, D. J., Lui, A. T. Y., Krimigis, S. M., Decker, R. B., Christon, S. P., Kokubun, S., Yamamoto, T., Sai...

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Scaling for Lobe and Cleft Patterns in Particle-laden Gravity Curr...

By: R. Munro; A. Jackson; B. Turnbull

Description: Process and Environmental Research Division, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK. Lobe and cleft patterns are frequently observed at the leading edge of gravity currents, including non-Boussinesq particle-laden currents such as powder snow avalanches. Despite the importance of the instability in driving air entrainment, little is known about its origin or the mechanisms behind its development. In this paper we seek to gain a ...

Bush, J., Thurber, B., and F., B.: Particle clouds in homogeneous and stratified environments, J. Fluid Mech., 489, 29–54, doi:10.1017/S0022112003005160, 2003.; Chandrasekhar, S.: Hydrodynamic and Hydromagnetic Stabiltiy, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 1961.; Duff, R., Harlow, F., and Hirt, C.: Effects of diffusion on interface instability between gases, Phys. Fluids, 5, 417–425, 1962.; H{ä}rtel, C., Carlsson,...

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How Does the Quality of a Prediction Depend on the Magnitude of th...

By: S. Hallerberg; H. Kantz

Description: Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Nöthnitzer Str. 38, 01187 Dresden, Germany. We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand, under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm based on precursory structures which are identified via the maximum likelihood principle. Using theses precursory stru...

Jackson, D. J.: Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 93, 3772–3775, 1996.; Kantz, H., Holstein ,D., Ragwitz, M., and Vitanov, N. K.: Markov chain model for turbulent wind speed data, Physica A, 342, 315–321, 2002.; Kantz, H., Holstein, D., Ragwitz, M., and Vitanov, N. K.: Short time prediction of wind speeds from local measurements, in: Wind Energy–Proceedings of the EUROMECH Colloquium, edited by: Peinke, J., Schaumann, P., and Barth...

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Comparison of Gliding Box and Box-counting Methods in River Networ...

By: A. Saa; A. M. Tarquis; J. B. Grau; G. Gascó; J. M. Antón

Description: Dpto. de Edafología y Climatología, E.T.S. de Ingenieros Agrónomos, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Ciudad Universitaria s.n., 28040 Madrid, Spain. We use multifractal analysis to estimate the Rényi dimensions of river basins by two different partition methods. These methods differ in the way that the Euclidian plane support of the measure is covered, partitioning it by using mutually exclusive boxes or by gliding a box over the plane.

I...

Aharony, A.: Measuring Multifractals, Physica D, 38, 1–4, 1989.; Aharony, A.: Multifractals in physics: Successes, dangers and challenges, Physica A, 168, 479–489, 1990.; Ahammer, H., DeVaney, T. T. J., and Tritthart, H. A.: How much resolution is enough? Influence of downscaling the pixel resolution of digital images on the generalized dimensions, Physica D, 181, 147–156, 2003.; Allain, C. and Cloitre, M.: Characterizing the lacunarity of random and deterministic fracta...

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Data Assimilation Experiments Using Diffusive Back-and-forth Nudgi...

By: E. Cosme; J. Verron; J. Blum; D. Auroux; G. A. Ruggiero; Y. Ourmières

Description: Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis/LJAD, Nice, France. The diffusive back-and-forth nudging (DBFN) is an easy-to-implement iterative data assimilation method based on the well-known nudging method. It consists of a sequence of forward and backward model integrations, within a given time window, both of them using a feedback term to the observations. Therefore, in the DBFN, the nudging asymptotic behaviour is translated into an infinite number of iterati...

Anderson, J. L.: A local least squares framework for ensemble filtering, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 634–642, 2003.; Abarbanel, H. D. I., Kostuk, M., and Whartenby, W.: Data assimilation with regularized nonlinear instabilities, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 769–783, doi:10.1002/qj.600, doi:10.1002/qj.600, 2010.; Anthes, R. A.: Data Assimilation and Initialization of Hurricane Predict...

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A Novel Method for Analyzing the Process of Abrupt Climate Change ...

By: G. L. Feng; W. Hou; P. C. Yan

Description: College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, China. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the transition process which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In...

Meehl, G. A., Branstator, G. W., and Washington, W. M.: Tropical Pacific interannual variability and CO2 climate change, J. Climate, 6, 42–63, 1993.; Alexander, R., Reinhard, C., and Andrey, G.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, 2012.; Alley, R. B., Marotzke, J., Nordhaus, W. D., Overpeck, J. T., Peteet, D. M., Pielke, R. A., Pierrehumbert Jr., R. T., Rhines, P. B., Stocker, T. F., Talley, L. D., ...

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Nonlinear Interaction Between Long Inertio-gravity and Rossby Wave...

By: S. Medvedev; G. Falkovich; E. Kuznetsov

Description: Physics Department, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100, Israel. The equations describing the interaction of long inertio-gravity (IG) waves with the Rossby waves are derived. Due to remarkable cancellations, the interaction is shown to be anomalously weak. As a result, an inverse cascade of turbulence produces wave condensate of large amplitude so that wave breaking with front creation can occur.

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Long Range Predictability of Atmospheric Flows : Volume 8, Issue 1...

By: C. Rosier; R. Robert

Description: CNRS UMR 5582, Institut Fourier, 100 Rue des mathématiques, BP 74, 38402 Saint Martin d’Hères Cedex, France. In the light of recent advances in 2D turbulence, we investigate the long range predictability problem of atmospheric flows. Using 2D Euler equations, we show that the full nonlinearity acting on a large number of degrees of freedom can, paradoxically, improve the predictability of the large scale motion, giving a picture opposite ...

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Detecting Spatial Patterns with the Cumulant Function – Part 2: an...

By: P. Yiou; P. Naveau; M. Vrac; A. Bernacchia

Description: Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy. The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure) is often studied to determine the regions of high variability or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual methods to find spatial patterns, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA), are constrained by linear symmetries, the dependence of variables such as temperature or pressur...

Alexander, M. A., Blade, I., Newman, M., Lanzante, J. R., Lau, N. C., and Scott, J.D.: The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans, J. Climate, 15, 2205–2231, 2002.; Arfken, G.: The Method of Steepest Descents, in: Mathematical Methods for Physicists, 3rd Ed., Orlando, FL, Academic Press, 428–436, 1985.; Bernacchia, A. and Naveau, P.: Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function – Part 1: The theory...

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