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Non-linear Complex Principal Component Analysis of Nearshore Bathy...

By: W. W. Hsieh; B. G. Ruessink; S. S. P. Rattan

Description: Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4. Complex principal component analysis (CPCA) is a useful linear method for dimensionality reduction of data sets characterized by propagating patterns, where the CPCA modes are linear functions of the complex principal component (CPC), consisting of an amplitude and a phase. The use of non-linear methods, such as the neural-network based circular non-line...

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On the Nonstationarity of the Decadal Periodicities of the Length ...

By: G. Consolini; R. Tozzi; P. De Michelis

Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy. The Earth's rotation rate is not constant, but changes on all observable timescales, from subdaily to decadal and longer. These variations are usually discussed in terms of variations in the length of the day (LoD) and are caused by processes acting within the interior, at the surface and outside of the Earth. Here, we investigate the presence of long-standing decadal variations in yearl...

Braginsky, S. I.: Short-period geomagnetic secular variation, Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dynam., 30, 1–78, 1984.; Buffet, B. A.: A mechanism for decade fluctuations in the length of day, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3803–3806, 1996.; Currie, R. G.: The 60 year spectral line in length of day fluctuations, S. Afr. J. Sci., 69, 180–182, 1973.; Flandrin, P., Rilling, G., and Goncalvès, P., Empirical mode decomposition as a filter bank, EEE Sig. Proc. Lett., 11, 112–114, 2004.; Gi...

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Implications of Model Error for Numerical Climate Prediction : Vol...

By: O. Martínez-alvarado

Description: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space...

Anderson, J. L.: Selection of initial conditions for ensemble forecasts in a simple perfect model framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 22–36, 1995.; Bowler, N. E., Arribas, A., Mylne, K. R., Robertson, K. B., and Beare, S. E.: The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 703–722, 2008.; Brands, S., Herrera, S., Fernandez, J., and Gutierrez, J.: How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions, Clim. Dynam., 41, 803–...

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Corrigendum to Nonlinear Dynamics Approach to the Predictability o...

By: B. Kirtman; L. Siqueira

Description: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, USA. No abstract available.

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Plankton Blooms in Vortices: the Role of Biological and Hydrodynam...

By: C. López; E. Hernández-garcía; U. Feudel; M. Sandulescu

Description: Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Carl-von-Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany. We study the interplay of hydrodynamic mesoscale structures and the growth of plankton in the wake of an island, and its interaction with a coastal upwelling. Our focus is on a mechanism for the emergence of localized plankton blooms in vortices. Using a coupled system of a kinematic flow mimicking the mesoscale structures b...

Abraham, E.: The generation of plankton patchiness by turbulent stirring, Nature, 391, 577–580, 1998.; Ar\'\istegui, J., Tett, P., Hernández-Guerra, A., Basterretxea, G., Montero, M. F., Wild, K., Sangrá, P., Hernández-Leon, S., Canton, M., Garc\'\ia-Braun, J. A., Pacheco, M., and Barton, E.: The influence of island-generated eddies on chlorophyll distribution: a study of mesoscale variation around Gran Canaria, Deep-Sea Res I, 44, 71–96, 1997.; Ar\'\istegui, J., Barton,...

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Evaluation of Eta Model Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Over Sout...

By: J. L. Gomes; J. F. Bustamante; S. C. Chou

Description: Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies – CPTEC, National Institute for Space Research, INPE, Brazil. Seasonal forecasts run by the Eta Model over South America were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability at different time scales, seasonal, monthly and weekly for one-year period runs. The model domain was configured over most of South America in 40km horizontal resolution and 38 layers. The lateral boundary conditions were take...

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Preface International Workshops on Nonlinear Waves and Chaos in Sp...

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Trend Analysis Using Non-stationary Time Series Clustering Based o...

By: M. Gorji Sefidmazgi; A. Homaifar; S. Liess; M. K. Jha; M. Sayemuzzaman

Description: North Carolina A&T State University, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Greensboro, USA. In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the pr...

Aster, R. C. and Thurber, C. H.: Parameter estimation and inverse problems, Academic Press, Waltham, MA, 2012.; Beaulieu, C., Chen, J., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 370, 1228–1249, 2012a.; Beaulieu, C., Sarmiento, J. L., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Chen, J., and Medvigy, D.: Identification and characterization of abrupt changes in the land uptake of carbon, Glob. Bio...

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Solar Cycle Dependence of Scaling in Solar Wind Fluctuations : Vol...

By: K. Kiyani; B. Hnat; S. C. Chapman

Description: Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Physics Department, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. In this review we collate recent results for the statistical scaling properties of fluctuations in the solar wind with a view to synthesizing two descriptions: that of evolving MHD turbulence and that of a scaling signature of coronal origin that passively propagates with the solar wind. The scenario that emerges is that of coexistent signatures w...

REFERENCE 1 \beginthebibliography \bibitem[Aschwanden(2000)] Aschwanden2000 Aschwanden, M. J.: Time variability of the quiet sun observed with TRACE. II. Physical parameters, temperature evolution, and energetics of extreme-ultraviolet nanoflares Astrophys. J., 535, 1047, 2000.; Aschwanden, M. J. and Parnell, C. E.: Nanoflare statistics from first principles: fractal geometry and temperature synthesis, Astrophys. J., 572, 1048, 2002.; Barenblatt, G. I.: Scaling, self-sim...

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Brief Communication: the Double Layer in the Separatrix Region Dur...

By: B. Yu; J. Guo

Description: School of Mathematics and Physics, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong 266061, China. With two-dimensional (2-D) particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations we investigate the evolution of the double layer (DL) driven by magnetic reconnection. Our results show that an electron beam can be generated in the separatrix region as magnetic reconnection proceeds. This electron beam could trigger the ion-acoustic instability; as a result, a D...

Boström, R.: Obdervations of weak double-layers on auroral field lines, IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci., 20, 756–763, 1992.; Deng, X. H. and Matsumoto, H.: Rapid magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere mediated by whistler waves, Nature, 410, 557–560, 2001.; Drake, J. F., Swisdak, M., Cattell, C., Shay, M. A., Rogers, B. N., and Zeiler, A.: Formation of electron holes and particle energization during magnetic reconnection, Science, 299, 873–877, 2003.; Ergun, R. E., S...

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Intermittency and Multifractional Brownian Character of Geomagneti...

By: G. Consolini; P. De Michelis; R. De Marco

Description: INAF – Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali, 00133 Rome, Italy. The Earth's magnetosphere exhibits a complex behavior in response to the solar wind conditions. This behavior, which is described in terms of mutifractional Brownian motions, could be the consequence of the occurrence of dynamical phase transitions. On the other hand, it has been shown that the dynamics of the geomagnetic signals is also characterized by intermittency at the smal...

Muniandy, S. V. and Lim, S. C.: Modeling of locally self-similar processes using multifractional Browninan motion of Riemann-Liuouville type, Phys. Rev. E, 63, 046104, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.63.046104, 2001.; Peltier, R. F. and Lévy-Vehel, J.: Multifractional Brownian motion: definition and preliminary results, INRIA Preprint No. 2645, 1995.; Peng, C. K., Buldryrev, S. V., Havlin, S., Simons, M., Stanley, H. E., and ...

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Influence of a Discontinuity on the Spectral and Fractal Analysis ...

By: R. P. H. Berton

Description: ONERA, Chemin de la Hunière, F-91761 Palaiseau Cedex, France. The analysis of a data area or segment containing steep transitions between regions with different textures (for example a cloud and its background) leads to addressing the problem of discontinuities and their impact on texture analysis. In that purpose, an original one-dimensional analytical model of spectrum and roughness function has been worked out, with a discontinuity between two fracta...

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Post-processing Through Linear Regression : Volume 18, Issue 2 (07...

By: S. Vannitsem; B. Van Schaeybroeck

Description: Koninklijk Meteorologisch Instituut (KMI), Ringlaan 3, 1180 Brussels, Belgium. Various post-processing techniques are compared for both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, all based on linear regression between forecast data and observations. In order to evaluate the quality of the regression methods, three criteria are proposed, related to the effective correction of forecast error, the optimal variability of the corrected forecast and multicollineari...

Barker, F., Y.C. Soh and R.J. Evans, 1988: Properties of the geometric-mean functional relationship, Biometrics \bf 44, 279.; Björck, A.: Numerical methods for least-square problems, SIAM, Philadelphia, 408 pp., 1996.; Casella, G. and Berger, R. L.: Statistical Inference, Brooks Cole Publishing, 661 pp., 1989.; Crone L.J., L.M. McMillin, D.S. Crosby, 1996: Constrained regression in satellite meteorology. J. Appl. Meteorol., {\bf 35}: 2023-2035.; Draper, N. ...

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Study of Nonlinear Ion- and Electron-acoustic Waves in Multi-compo...

By: R. Bharuthram; S. V. Singh; G. S. Lakhina; F. Verheest; A. P. Kakad

Description: Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, New Panvel (W), Navi Mumbai – 410 218, India. Large amplitude ion-acoustic and electron-acoustic waves in an unmagnetized multi-component plasma system consisting of cold background electrons and ions, a hot electron beam and a hot ion beam are studied using Sagdeev pseudo-potential technique. Three types of solitary waves, namely, slow ion-acoustic, ion-acoustic and electron-acoustic solitons are found provided the Mac...

Ashour-Abdalla, M. and Okuda, H.: Electron acoustic instabilities in the geomagnetic tails, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 366–369, 1986.; Backrud-Ivgren, M., Stenberg, G., André, M., Morooka, M., Hobara, Y., Joko, S., Rönnmark, K. Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N., Fazakerley, A., and R`eme, H., Cluster observations and theoretical identification of broadband waves in the auroral region, Ann. Geophy., 23, 3739–3752, 2005.; Bernstein I. B., Greene J. M., and Kruskal M. D.: Exact Nonlinea...

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Insight Into Earthquake Sequencing: Analysis and Interpretation of...

By: K. Vasudevan; M. S. Cavers

Description: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada. Directed graph representation of a Markov chain model to study global earthquake sequencing leads to a time-series of state-to-state transition probabilities that includes the spatio-temporally linked recurrent events in the record-breaking sense. A state refers to a configuration comprised of zones with either the occurrence or non-occurrence of an earthq...

Allan, D. W.: Statistics of atomic frequency standards, Ptoc. IEEE, 54, 221–230, 1966.; Barnes, J. A. and Allan, D. W.: A statistical model of flicker noise, Ptoc. IEEE, 54, 176–178, 1966.; Bird, P.: An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 4, 1027, doi:10.1029/2001GC000252, 2003.; Bohnenstiehl, D. R., Tolstoy, M., Smith, D. K., Fox, C. G., and Dziak, R. P.: Time-clustering behavior of sprea...

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Boussinesq Modeling of Surface Waves Due to Underwater Landslides ...

By: H. Kalisch; D. Dutykh

Description: University College Dublin, School of Mathematical Sciences, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. Consideration is given to the influence of an underwater landslide on waves at the surface of a shallow body of fluid. The equations of motion that govern the evolution of the barycenter of the landslide mass include various dissipative effects due to bottom friction, internal energy dissipation, and viscous drag. The surface waves are studied in the Boussinesq scali...

Batchelor, G. K.: An introduction to fluid dynamics, volume 61 of Cambridge mathematical library, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,; Ali, A. and Kalisch, H.: Energy balance for undular bores, C.R. Mécanique, 338, 67–70, doi:10.1016/j.crme.2010.02.003, 2010.; Ali, A. and Kalisch, H.: Mechanical balance laws for Boussinesq models of surface water waves, J. Nonlinear Sci., 22, 371–398,

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The Evolution of a Thermocline Effected by a Turbulent Stream : Vo...

By: V. I. Kazakov; P. A. Matusov; L. A. Ostrovsky; O. A. Druzhinin

Description: Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Uljanov Str., Nizhny Novogorod 603600, Russia. The process of thermocline evolution under the action of turbulent stream in the upper layer is investigated in laboratory experiment in thermally stratified tank, the initial temperature profile with pronounced thermocline being similar to that observed in tropic seas. The mean velocity and turbulent energy spatial distributions have been shaped ...

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Chaos in Driven Alfvén Systems: Unstable Periodic Orbits and Chaot...

By: W. M. Santana; E. L. Rempel; Y. Kamide; F. A. Borotto; A. C.-l. Chian; T. Hada

Description: National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER), P.O. Box 515, São José dos Campos – SP, CEP 12227-010, Brazil. The chaotic dynamics of Alfvén waves in space plasmas governed by the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation, in the low-dimensional limit described by stationary spatial solutions, is studied. A bifurcation diagram is constructed, by varying the driver amplitude, to identify a number o...

Baumgartel, K.: Soliton approach to magnetic holes, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 28 295–28 308, 1999.; Auerbach, D., Cvitanovi\'c, P., Eckmann, J.-P., Gunaratne, G., and Procaccia, I.: Exploring chaotic motion through periodic orbits, Phys. Rev. Lett., 58, 2387–2389, 1987.; Borotto, F. A., Chian, A. C.-L., Hada, T., and Rempel, E. L.: Chaos in driven Alfvén systems: boundary and interior crises, Physica D, 194, 275–282, 2004.; Bruno, R. and Carbone, V.: The solar wind as a tur...

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Obliquely Propagating Electron Acoustic Solitons in Magnetized Pla...

By: H. R. Pakzad; K. Javidan

Description: Department of Physics, Bojnourd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bojnourd, Iran. The problem of small amplitude electron-acoustic solitary waves (EASWs) is discussed using the reductive perturbation theory in magnetized plasmas consisting of cold electrons, hot electrons obeying nonextensive distribution and stationary ions. The presented investigation shows that the presence of nonextensive distributed hot electrons (due to the effects of long-range in...

Mamun, A. A., Shukla, P. K., and Stenflo, L.: Obliquely propagating electron-acoustic solitary waves, Phys. Plasmas, 9, 4 pp., doi:10.1063/1.1462635, 2002.; Amour, R. and Tribeche, M.: Variable charge dust acoustic solitary waves in a dusty plasma with a q-nonextensive electron velocity distribution, Phys. Plasmas, 7 pp., doi:10.1063/1.3428538, 2010.; Anowar, M. G. M. and Mamun, A. A.: Multidimensional instability of electron-acoustic solitary waves in a magnetized plasm...

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Nonlinear Correlations of Daily Temperature Records Over Land : Vo...

By: I. M. Jánosi; I. Bartos

Description: Department of Physics of Complex Systems, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary. We present a near global statistics on the correlation properties of daily temperature records. Data from terrestrial meteorological stations in the Global Daily Climatology Network are analyzed by means of detrended fluctuation analysis. Long-range temporal correlations extending up to several years are detected for each station. In order to reveal nonlinearity, we evaluate...

Fraedrich, K., Luksch, U., and Blender, R. A.: 1/f-model for long time memory of the ocean surface temperature, Phys. Rev. E, 70, 037301, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.037301, 2003.; Hegger, R., Kantz, H., and Schreiber, T.: Practical implementation of nonlinear time series methods: The TISEAN package, Chaos, 9, 413–435, 1999, The software package is publicly available at http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/ tisean.; Jun, W. C., Oh, G., and Kim, S.: Understanding volatility corre...

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