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Systematic Attribution of Observed Southern Hemisphere Circulation...

By: C. L. E. Franzke; I. Horenko; T. J. O'Kane; J. S. Risbey; D. P. Monselesan

Description: Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemisp...

Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, 2006.; Akaike, H.: Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle. 1998, in Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike, edited by: Parzen, E., Tanabe, K., and Kitagawa, G., Springer, New York, 1998.; Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone reco...

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Small World in a Seismic Network: the California Case : Volume 15,...

By: A. M. Posadas; K. F. Tiampo; A. Jiménez

Description: Department of Earth Sciences Biological and Geological Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada. Recent work has shown that disparate systems can be described as complex networks i.e. assemblies of nodes and links with nontrivial topological properties. Examples include technological, biological and social systems. Among them, earthquakes have been studied from this perspective. In the present work, we divide the Southern California region i...

Abe, S. and Suzuki, N.: Scale-free network of earthquakes, Europhys. Lett., 65, 4, 581–586, 2004.; Abe, S. and Suzuki, N.: Complex-network description of seismicity, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 145–150, 2006.; Abe, S. and Suzuki, N.: Complex earthquake networks: Hierarchical organization and assortative mixing, Phys. Rev. E., 74, 026113, 2006.; Albert, R. and Barabási, A. L.: Statistical mechanics of complex networks, Rev. Mod. Phys., 74, 47–97, 2002.; Baiesi, M., Pa...

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Phase Space Vortices in Collisionless Plasmas : Volume 10, Issue 1...

By: S. Børve; P. Michelsen; H. L. Pécseli; J. Juul Rasmussen; L. K. S. Daldorff; J. Trulsen; J. P. Lynov; P. Guio; K. Saeki

Description: University of Oslo, Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, Box 1029 Blindern, N-0315 Oslo, Norway. Results on the formation and propagation of electron phase space vortices from laboratory experiments are summarized. The electron phase space vortices were excited in a strongly magnetized Q-machine plasma by applying a pulse to a segment of a waveguide surrounding the plasma. Depending on the temporal variation of the applied pulse, one o...

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Scaling Laws of Diffusion and Time Intermittency Generated by Cohe...

By: D. Contini; A. Donateo; R. Cesari; P. Paradisi; P. Allegrini

Description: Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione A. Faedo (ISTI-CNR), Via Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa, Italy. We investigate the time intermittency of turbulent transport associated with the birth-death of self-organized coherent structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. We apply a threshold analysis on the increments of turbulent fluctuations to extract sequences of rapid acceleration events, which is a marker of the transition between self-organized s...

Bianco, S., Grigolini, P., and Paradisi, P.: Fluorescence intermittency in blinking quantum dots: renewal or slow modulation?, J. Chem. Phys., 123, 174704, doi:10.1063/1.2102903, 2005.; Bianco, S., Grigolini, P., and Paradisi, P.: A fluctuating environment as a source of periodic modulation Chem. Phys. Lett., 438, 336–340, 2007.; Cava, D. and Katul, G. G.: The effects of thermal stratification on clustering properties of ca...

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Horizontal Circulation and Jumps in Hamiltonian Wave Models : Volu...

By: J. Van Der Vegt; O. Bokhove; E. Gagarina

Description: Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands. We are interested in the modelling of wave-current interactions around surf zones at beaches. Any model that aims to predict the onset of wave breaking at the breaker line needs to capture both the nonlinearity of the wave and its dispersion. We have therefore formulated the Hamiltonian dynamics of a new water wave model, incorporating both the shallow water and pure pote...

Ali, A. and Kalisch, H. : Energy balance for undular bores, C. R. Mecanique, 338, 67–70, doi:10.1016/j.crme.2010.02.003, 2010; Bokhove, O., Gagarina, E., Zweers, W., and Thornton, A.: Bore-Soliton-Splash: van spektakel naar oceaangolf, Ned. Tijdschrift voor Natuurkunde, Popular version, 77, 450–454, available at: http://eprints.eemcs.utwente.nl/20683/ (last access:...

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Multifractal Two-scale Cantor Set Model for Slow Solar Wind Turbul...

By: A. Wawrzaszek; W. M. MacEk

Description: Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Science, Bartycka 18A, 00-716 Warsaw, Poland. To quantify solar wind turbulence, we consider a generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set with two different scales describing nonuniform distribution of the kinetic energy flux between cascading eddies of various sizes. We examine generalized dimensions and the corresponding multifractal singularity spectrum depending on one probability measure parameter and two res...

Bruno, R. and Carbone, V.: The solar wind as a turbulence laboratory, Living Rev. Sol. Phys., 2, lrsp2005–4, 2005.; Bruno, R., Carbone, V., Sorriso-Valvo, L., and Bavassano, B.: Radial evolution of solar wind intermittency in the inner heliosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1130, doi:10.1029/2002JA009615, 2003.; Burlaga, L. F.: Multifractal structure of the interplanetary magnetic field - Voyager 2 observations near 25 AU, ...

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The Small Amplitude of Density Turbulence in the Inner Solar Wind ...

By: S. R. Spangler

Description: University of Iowa, USA. Very Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI) observations were made of radio sources close to the Sun, whose lines of sight pass through the inner solar wind (impact parameters 16-26 RE). Power spectra were analyzed of the interferometer phase fluctuations due to the solar wind plasma. These power spectra provide information on the level of plasma density fluctuations on spatial scales of roughly one hu...

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Bifurcations and Instabilities in Rotating, Two-layer Fluids: II. ...

By: P. L. Read; I. M. Moroz; A. F. Lovegrove

Description: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, United Kingdom. In this paper, we show that the behavior of weakly nonlinear waves in a 2-layer model of baroclinic instability on a b-plane with varying viscosity is determined by a single, degenerate codimension three bifurcation. In the process, we show how previous studies, using the method of multiple scales to derive evolution equations for th...

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Using a Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis for Analyzing the Rela...

By: C. Tiede; J. Zhao

Description: Department of Geoinformatics, University of Applied Sciences Munich, Karlstr. 6, 80333 Munich, Germany. An implementation of uncertainty analysis (UA) and quantitative global sensitivity analysis (SA) is applied to the non-linear inversion of gravity changes and three-dimensional displacement data which were measured in and active volcanic area. A didactic example is included to illustrate the computational procedure. The main emphasis is placed on the...

Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., and Chan, K. P. S.: A quantitative model-independent methodfor global sensitivity analysis of model output, Technometrics, 41, 39–56, 1999.; Saltelli, A., Chan, K., and Scott, M. (Eds.): Sensitivity Analysis, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2000.; Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., and Ratto, M.: Sensitivity Analysis in Practice, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2004.; Beauducel, F., Cornet, F., Suhanto, E., Duquesnoy, T., and Kasser, M.: Constra...

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Models of Explosive Volcanism : Volume 2, Issue 3/4 (30/11/-0001)

By: M. I. Bursik; S. M. Bower; A. W. Woods

Description: Institute of Therotical Geophysics, DAMTP, Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EW, U.K.. We describe a series of models which illustrate the controls upon the evolution of an erupting mixture of ash and gas during an explosive volcanic eruption. For large eruption rates, material typically issues from a crater as a supersonic jet which may entrain and heat sufficient air to become buoyant and form a Plinian eruption column. If a buoyant eruption column is abl...

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Can Irregularities of Solar Proxies Help Understand Quasi-biennial...

By: V. Courtillot; M. Shnirman; A. Shapoval; J. L. Le Mouël

Description: IEPT RAS, Profsoyuznaya str. 84/32, 117997 Moscow, Russia. We define, calculate and analyze irregularity indices ΛWN and Λaa of daily series of sunspot number WN and geomagnetic index aa as a function of increasing smoothing from N = 162 to 648 days. The irregularity indices λ are computed within 4 year sliding windows, with embedding dimensions m = 1 and 2. ΛWN and Λaa

Bergé, P., Pomeau, Y., and Vidal, C.: L'Ordre dans le Chaos, Hermann, Paris, France, 353 pp., 1984.; Bershadskii, A.: New dynamics of the Sun convection zone and global warming, arXiv:0805.2108v1 [astro-ph.SR], 2008.; Bershadskii, A.: Chaotic mean wind in turbulent thermal convection and long-term correlations in solar activity, arXiv:0908.4008v4 [astro-ph.SR]], 2009.; Blanter, E. M., Shnirman, M. G., and Le Mouël, J.-L.: Solar variability: Evolution of correlation prope...

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Gottwald Melborune (0–1) Test for Chaos in a Plasma : Volume 19, I...

By: S. Lahiri; D. R. Chowdhury; A. N. S. Iyengar

Description: Techno India, EM4/1, Sector V, Kolkata-700091, India. Plasma is a highly complex system exhibiting a rich variety of nonlinear dynamical phenomena. In the last two decades or so there has been a spurt of growth in exploring unconventional nonlinear dynamical methods of analysis, like chaos theory, multi fractal analysis, self organized criticality etc. of experimental data from different plasma systems. Investigation of fluctuating plasma parameters is...

Cheung, P. Y. and Wong, A. Y.: Chaotic behaviour and periodic doubling in plasmas, Phys. Rev. Lett., 59, 551–554, 1987.; Ding Weixing, Huang Wei, Wang Xiaodong, and C. X. Yu: Chaos in glow discharge plasma, Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 170–173,1993.; Dinklage, A., Wilke, C., and Klinger, T.: Spatiotemporal response of stochastic resonance in an excitable discharge plasma, Phys. Plasmas, 6, 2968–2971, 1999.; Gottwald, G. A. and Melbourne, I.: A new test for chaos in a determinist...

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Estimation of Soil Types by Non Linear Analysis of Remote Sensing ...

By: R. Gloaguen; C. Hahn

Description: Remote Sensing Group, Geology Institute, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany. The knowledge of soil type and soil texture is crucial for environmental monitoring purpose and risk assessment. Unfortunately, their mapping using classical techniques is time consuming and costly. We present here a way to estimate soil types based on limited field observations and remote sensing data. Due to the fact that the relation between the soil types an...

Agresti, A.: An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, Wiley Press, p. 312, 1996; Bhattacharya, B. and Solomatine, D P.: Machine learning in soil classification, Neural Networks, 19, 186–195, 2006.; Bradley, J. V.: Distribution-Free Statistical Tests, Prentice-Hall Press, p. 388, 1968.; Burges, C. J C.: A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern Recognition, Data Min. Knowl. Disk., 2, 121–167, 1998.; Chen, P.-H., Lin, C.-J., and Schölkopf, B.: A Tutorial on nu...

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A Conceptual Enso Model Under Realistic Noise Forcing : Volume 13,...

By: D. Maraun; J. Kurths; J. Saynisch

Description: Nonlinear Dynamics Group, University Potsdam, Germany. We investigated the influence of atmospheric noise on the generation of interannual El Niño variability. Therefore, we perturbed a conceptual ENSO delay model with surrogate windstress data generated from tropical windspeed measurements. The effect of the additional stochastic forcing was studied for various parameter sets including periodic and chaotic regimes. The evaluation was based on a sp...

Bjerknes, J.: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163–172, 1969.; Eccles, F. and Tziperman, E.: Nonlinar effects on ENSO's period, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 474–482, 2004.; Eisenman, I., Yu, L., and Tziperman, E.: Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO's tail rather than the dog?, J. Climate, 18, 5224–5238, 2005.; Boulanger, J.-P., Menkes, C., and Lengaigne, M.: Role of high- and low-frequency winds and wave reflection in the onset, growth and term...

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Bayesian Estimation of the Self-similarity Exponent of the Nile Ri...

By: N. Benhamidouche; M. Holschneider; N. Makarava; S. Benmehdi

Description: Departement of Mathematics, University of Bourdj-Bouarreridj, Box 64, 34265 Bourdj-Bouarreridj, Algeria. The aim of this paper is to estimate the Hurst parameter of Fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN) using Bayesian inference. We propose an estimation technique that takes into account the full correlation structure of this process. Instead of using the integrated time series and then applying an estimator for its Hurst exponent, we propose to use the noise s...

Abry, P. and Veitch, D.: Wavelet Analysis of Long-Range-Dependent Traffic, IEEE T. Inform., 44, 2–15, 1998.; Abry, P. and Pipiras, V.: Wavelet-based synthesis of the Rosenblatt process, Signal Process., 86, 2326–2339, doi:10.1016/j.sigpro.2005.10.021, 2006.; Dieker, T.: Simulation of Fractional Brownian motion, Ph.D. thesis, Twente University, 2004.; Geweke, K. and Porter-Hudak, S.: The estimation and application...

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Field Theoretical Prediction of a Property of the Tropical Cyclone...

By: M. Vlad; F. Spineanu

Description: National Institute of Laser, Plasma and Radiation Physics, Magurele, 077125 Bucharest, Romania. The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be e...

Abers, E. and Lee, B.: Gauge theories, Phys. Rep., 9, 1–141, 1973.; Batchelor, G. K.: An introduction to fluid dynamics, Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, 2002.; Chavas, D. and Emanuel, K.: A QuickSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18816, doi:10.1029/2010GL044558, 2010.; Dunne, G.: Self-dual Chern-Simons theories, vol. 36 of Lecture Notes in Physics, Springer Verlag, Berlin, Hei...

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An Algorithm for Detecting Layer Boundaries in Sediments : Volume ...

By: K. Bube; U. Feudel; T. Klenke

Description: Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Postfach 2503, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany. In this paper we present an algorithm based on wavelet multiscale decomposition, designed to detect lines of maximal gradients in horizontal direction within two-dimensional data sets. The algorithm is capable of identifying layer boundaries within sediment profiles, as demonstrated for artificial as well as two field data sets....

Block, A., von Bloh, W., Klenke, T., and Schellnhuber, H J.: Multifractal Analysis of the Microdistribution of Elements in Sedimentary Structures Using Images From Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X Ray Spectroscopy, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 223–230, 1991.; Canny, J.: A Computational Approach to Edge Detection, IEEE Trans. Patt.\ Anal. Mach. Intell., 8, 679–698, 1986.; Capilla, C.: Application of the Haar wavelet transform to detect microseismic signal arr...

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Scaling of Peak Flows with Constant Flow Velocity in Random Self-s...

By: B. M. Troutman; V. K. Gupta; R. Mantilla

Description: IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA. A methodology is presented to understand the role of the statistical self-similar topology of real river networks on scaling, or power law, in peak flows for rainfall-runoff events. We created Monte Carlo generated sets of ensembles of 1000 random self-similar networks (RSNs) with geometrically distributed interior and exterior generators having parameters pi<...

Furey, P. and Gupta, V. K.: Effects of excess rainfall on the temporal variability of observed peak discharge power laws, Adv. Water Resour., 28, 1240–1253, 2005.; Furey, P. R. and Gupta, V. K.: Diagnosing peak-discharge power laws observed in rainfall-runoff events in Goodwin Creek experimental watershed, Adv. Water Resour., 30, 2387–2399, 2007.; Furey, P. R. and Troutman, B. M.: A consistent framework for Horton regression statistics that leads to a modified Hack'...

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Soils' Seismic Property Research on the Basis of Investigation of ...

By: V. B. Zaalishvili

Description: Geophysical Institute VSC RAS, Vladikavkaz, Russia. The most important problem of seismic microzonation (SMZ) is to prove the assessment of soil conditions' influence on the response of buildings and constructions. On the modern stage, SMZ can not remain in linear positions, and empirical tools of SMZ take into account nonlinear soil properties. A number of instrumental techniques for nonlinear phenomenon investigation in soils are given in the paper. N...

Dzhindzholava, B. S.: Evaluation of the sensitivity of metrological parameters of measuring and computing systems in operation modes, in: Methods and Means of Metrological Assurance: Coll. Works NMI, Metsniereba, Tbilisi, 72–75, 1986.; Engelbrecht, Y. K. and Feldman, M. V.: Change in the spectral composition of the seismic pulses during propagation in a nonlinear medium, in: Problems of Nonlinear Seismology, Nauka, Moscow, 103–108, 1987.; Khalturin, V. I., Rautian, T. G....

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An Implementation of the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter in a Quasi G...

By: E. Kalnay; S. C. Yang; M. Corazza

Description: University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology, College Park, MD, USA. We perform data assimilation experiments with a widely used quasi-geostrophic channel model and compare the Local Ensemble Kalman Filter (LEKF) with a 3D-Var developed for this model. The LEKF shows a large improvement, especially in correcting the fast growing modes of the analysis errors, with a mean square error equal to about half that of the 3D-Var. The improvement obtaine...

Anderson, J S.: An ensemble adjustment filter for data assimilation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2884–2903, 2001.; Annan, J D.: On the orthogonality of Bred Vectors, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 843–849, 2004.; Bennett, A F., Chua, B S., and Leslie, L M.: Generalized inversion of a global NWP model., Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 60, 165–178, 1996.; Corazza, M., Kalnay, E., Patil, D J., Ott, E., Yorke, J., Szunyogh, I., and Cai, M.: Use of the breeding technique in the estimation of the back...

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