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New Drug Development: Estimating Entry from Human Clinical Trials

By Adams, Christopher P.

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Book Id: WPLBN0000237577
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 0.1 MB
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Title: New Drug Development: Estimating Entry from Human Clinical Trials  
Author: Adams, Christopher P.
Language: English
Subject: Trade, Import and export controls, Federal Trade Commission (U.S.)
Collections: Economics Publications Collection, Federal Trade Commission
Publication Date:
Publisher: Government Printing Office


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Adams, C. P. (n.d.). New Drug Development: Estimating Entry from Human Clinical Trials. Retrieved from

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Abstract: This paper analyses a detailed data set on drugs in human clinical trials around the world between 1989 and 2002. The data provides information on the probabilities with which drugs successfully complete the different phases of the trials and the durations of successful completions. The paper shows that success rates and durations can vary substantially across observable characteristics of the drugs, including primary indication, originating company, route of administration and chemistry. It suggests that analysis of this type of data can help us to answer questions such as: Do AIDS drugs get to market faster? Do Biotech drugs have higher probabilities of getting to market? This paper provides some general statistics for analyzing these questions.


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