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Is the "Surge" Working? : Some New Facts

By Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics

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Book Id: WPLBN0003161297
Format Type: PDF eBook :
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Reproduction Date: 2011

Title: Is the "Surge" Working? : Some New Facts  
Author: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics
Volume: Volume: no. 07-24
Language: English
Subject: Iraq War, 2003-, Iraq War, 2003-
Collections: American Libraries Collection
Publication Date:
Publisher: Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics


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Of Technology. Dept. Of Economic, M. I. (2007). Is the Surge Working? : Some New Facts. Retrieved from

Description: There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military Surge on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new data file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge's impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets' assessment of Iraq's future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy. The analysis reveals mixed evidence on the Surge's effect on key trends in Iraq. The security situation has improved insofar as civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops. However, other areas, such as oil production and the number of trained Iraqi Security Forces have shown no improvement or declined. Evaluating such conflicting indicators is challenging. There is, however, another way to assess the Surge. This paper shows how data from world financial markets can be used to shed light on the central question of whether the Surge has increased or diminished the prospect of today's Iraq surviving into the future

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