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Predictability of Extreme Values in Geophysical Models : Volume 19, Issue 5 (17/09/2012)

By Sterk, A. E.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003973775
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 11
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Predictability of Extreme Values in Geophysical Models : Volume 19, Issue 5 (17/09/2012)  
Author: Sterk, A. E.
Volume: Vol. 19, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Rabassa, P., Broer, H. W., Holland, M. P., Sterk, A. E., & Vitolo, R. (2012). Predictability of Extreme Values in Geophysical Models : Volume 19, Issue 5 (17/09/2012). Retrieved from

Description: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK. Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small) values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

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