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Recurrent Frequency-size Distribution of Characteristic Events : Volume 16, Issue 2 (28/04/2009)

By Abaimov, S. G.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003976511
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 18
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Recurrent Frequency-size Distribution of Characteristic Events : Volume 16, Issue 2 (28/04/2009)  
Author: Abaimov, S. G.
Volume: Vol. 16, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2009
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L., Tiampo, K. F., & Abaimov, S. G. (2009). Recurrent Frequency-size Distribution of Characteristic Events : Volume 16, Issue 2 (28/04/2009). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada. Statistical frequency-size (frequency-magnitude) properties of earthquake occurrence play an important role in seismic hazard assessments. The behavior of earthquakes is represented by two different statistics: interoccurrent behavior in a region and recurrent behavior at a given point on a fault (or at a given fault). The interoccurrent frequency-size behavior has been investigated by many authors and generally obeys the power-law Gutenberg-Richter distribution to a good approximation. It is expected that the recurrent frequency-size behavior should obey different statistics. However, this problem has received little attention because historic earthquake sequences do not contain enough events to reconstruct the necessary statistics. To overcome this lack of data, this paper investigates the recurrent frequency-size behavior for several problems. First, the sequences of creep events on a creeping section of the San Andreas fault are investigated. The applicability of the Brownian passage-time, lognormal, and Weibull distributions to the recurrent frequency-size statistics of slip events is tested and the Weibull distribution is found to be the best-fit distribution. To verify this result the behaviors of numerical slider-block and sand-pile models are investigated and the Weibull distribution is confirmed as the applicable distribution for these models as well. Exponents Β of the best-fit Weibull distributions for the observed creep event sequences and for the slider-block model are found to have similar values ranging from 1.6 to 2.2 with the corresponding aperiodicities CV of the applied distribution ranging from 0.47 to 0.64. We also note similarities between recurrent time-interval statistics and recurrent frequency-size statistics.

Summary
Recurrent frequency-size distribution of characteristic events

Excerpt
Abaimov, S. G.: Critical behavior of slider-block model, arXiv:0902.3767, 2009.; Abaimov, S. G., Turcotte, D. L., and Rundle, J. B.: Recurrence-time and frequency-slip statistics of slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California, Geophys. J. Int., 170, 1289–1299, 2007a.; Abaimov, S. G., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., and Rundle, J. B.: Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 14, 455–464, 2007b.; Abaimov, S. G., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., Rundle, J. B., Yakovlev, G., Goltz, C., and Newman, W. I.: Earthquakes: Recurrence and interoccurrence times, Pure Appl. Geophys., 165, 777–795, 2008.; Bak, P., Tang, C., and Wiesenfeld, K.: Self-organized criticality, Phys. Rev. A., 38, 364–374, 1988.; Bak, P., Christensen, K., Danon, L., and Scanlon, T.: Unified scaling law for earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 88, 178501, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.88178501, 2002.; Bakun, W. H., Aagaard, B., and Dost, B., et al.: Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, Nature, 437, 969–974, 2005.; Biasi, G. P., Welden, R. J., Fumal, T. E., and Seitz, G. G.: Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 92, 2761–2781, 2005.; Carlson, J. M. and Langer, J. S.: Mechanical model of an earthquake fault, Phys. Rev. A, 40, 6470–6484, 1989.; Chhikara, R. S. and Folks, J. L.: The Inverse Gaussian Distribution: Theory, Methodology, and Applications, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1989.; Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F.: Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomenon, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2nd ed., 1954.; Kagan, Y. and Knopoff, L.: Statistical search for nonrandom features of seismicity of strong earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 12, 291–318, 1976.; Kanamori, H. and Anderson, D. L.: Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 65, 1073–1095, 1975.; Langbein, J.: Download fault creep data from central California, http://quake.usgs.gov/research/deformation/monitoring/downloadcreep.html, 2006.; Matthews, M. V., Ellsworth, W. L., and Reasenberg, P. A.: A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 92, 2233–2250, 2002.; Meeker, W. Q. and Escobar, L. A.: Statistical Methods for Reliability Data, John Wiley, New York, 1991.; Molchan, G. M.: Strategies in strong earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth. Planet. Int., 61, 84–98, 1990.; Molchan, G. M.: Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction, Tectonophys., 193, 267–276, 1991.; Nishenko, S. P. and Buland, R.: A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 77, 1382–1399, 1987.; Okada, T., Matsuzawa, T., and Hasegawa, A.: Comparison of source areas of M4.8$\pm $0.1 repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: are asperities persistent features?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 213, 361–374, 2003.; Pacheco, J. F., Scholz, C. H., and Sykes, L. R.: Changes in frequency-size relationship from small to large earthquakes, Nature, 355, 71–73, 1992.; Park, S.-C. and Mori, J.: Are asperity patterns persistent? Implication from large earthquakes in Papua New Guinea, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B03303, doi:10.1029/2006JB004481, 2007.; Patel, J. K., Kapadia, C. H., and Owen, D. B.: Handbook of Statistical Distributions, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1976.; Press, W. H., Teukolsky, S. A., Vetterling, W. T., and Flannery, B. P.: Numerical Recipes in C, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2nd ed., 623–626, 1995.; Rikitake, T.: Earthquake Forecasting and Warning, 402 pp., D. Reidel Publishing Co., Dordrecht, 1982.; Rundle, J. B. and Klein, W.: Scaling and critical phenomena in a cellular automation slider-block model for earthquakes, J. Stat. Phys., 72, 405–412, 1993.; Savage, J. C.: Empirical earthquake probabilities from observed recurrence intervals, Bull. Seism. Soc. A

 

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