World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Conditioning Model Output Statistics of Regional Climate Model Precipitation on Circulation Patterns : Volume 19, Issue 6 (13/11/2012)

By Wetterhall, F.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0003976868
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 11
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Conditioning Model Output Statistics of Regional Climate Model Precipitation on Circulation Patterns : Volume 19, Issue 6 (13/11/2012)  
Author: Wetterhall, F.
Volume: Vol. 19, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2012
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

He, Y., Freer, J., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., & Cloke, H. L. (2012). Conditioning Model Output Statistics of Regional Climate Model Precipitation on Circulation Patterns : Volume 19, Issue 6 (13/11/2012). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK. Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Summary
Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

Excerpt
Bardossy, A. and Pegram, G.: Downscaling precipitation using regional climate models and circulation patterns toward hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 47, doi:10.1029/2010WR009689, 2011.; Bardossy, A. and Plate, E.: Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1247–1259, 1992.; Baur, F., Hess, P., and Nagel, H.: Kalender der Grosswetterlagen Europas 1881–1939, Bad Homburg, Germany, 35 pp., 1944.; Beven, K.: I believe in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the future?, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1517–1520, 2011.; Boé, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643–1655, 2007.; Christensen, J. H. and Christensen, O. B.: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century, Climatic Change, 81, 7–30, 2007.; Christensen, J. H., Kjellström, E., Giorgi,, F., Lenderink, G., and Rummukainen, M.: Weight assignment in regional climate models. Clim. Res., 44, 179–194, 2010.; Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., and Renaud, J.-P.: Multi-Method Global Sensitivity Analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes, Hydrol. Process., 22, 1660–1674, 2008.; Cloke, H. L., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J., and Pappenberger, F.: Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., online first, 2012.; Déqué, M.: Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values, Global Planet. Chang., 57, 16–26, 2007.; Demargne, J., Brown,J., Liu, Y., Seo, D.-J., Wu, L., Toth, Z., and Zhu, Y.: Diagnostic verification of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensembles, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 114–122, 2010.; Eden, J. M., Widmann, M., Grawe, D., and Rast, S.: Skill, Correction, and Downscaling of GCM-Simulated Precipitation, J. Climate, 25, 3970–3984, 2012.; Dibike, Y. B. and Coulibaly, P.: Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change in the Saguenay Watershed: Comparison of Downscaling Methods and Hydrologic Models, J. Hydrol., 307, 145–163, 2005. ; Díez, E., Primo, C., García-Moya, J. A., Gutiérrez, J. M., and Orfila, B.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts, Tellus A, 57, 409–423, 2005.; Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., and Tebaldi, C.: Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547–1578, 2007.; Haylock, M. R., Cawley, G. C., Harpham, C., Wilby, R. L., and Goodess, C.M.: Downscaling heavy precipitation over the United Kingdom: A comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1397–1415, 2006.; He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., Freer,, J., and McGregor, G.: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 91–101, 2009.; Hess, P. and Brezowsky, H.: Katalog der Grobwetterlagen Europas 1881–1976, 3 verbesserte und ergäntze, Auflage. Ber Dt. Wetterd., 15, 54 pp., 1977.; IPCC Pachauri, R. K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 104, 2007.; Lamb, H. H.: Types and spells of weather around the year in the British Isles : Annual trends, seasonal structure of the year, singularities, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 76, 393–429, 1950.; Lamb, H. H.: British Isles weather types and a register of the daily sequence of circulation patterns 1861–1971, H. M. Stationery Off. (London), p. 85, 1972.; Leith, N.

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation... (by )
  • Intermittency of Earthquake Cycles in a ... (by )
  • Data Assimilation in a Sparsely Observed... (by )
  • Discerning Connectivity from Dynamics in... (by )
  • Testing the Detectability of Spatio–temp... (by )
  • An Extension of Conditional Nonlinear Op... (by )
  • Effect of Thermal Pressure on Upward Pla... (by )
  • Statistical Properties of Galaxy Distrib... (by )
  • Nonlinear Wave Energy Modelling in the S... (by )
  • State Dependent Predictability: Impact o... (by )
  • Albedo Parametrization and Reversibility... (by )
  • Accurate Estimation of Third-order Momen... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.