World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction : Volume 18, Issue 3 (18/05/2011)

By Ghil, M.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0003983700
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 56
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction : Volume 18, Issue 3 (18/05/2011)  
Author: Ghil, M.
Volume: Vol. 18, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Zaliapin, I., Ghil, M., Kondrashov, D., Naveau, P., Friederichs, P., Kossobokov, V.,...Mestre, O. (2011). Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction : Volume 18, Issue 3 (18/05/2011). Retrieved from

Description: Environmental Research and Teaching Institute (CERES-ERTI), Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), UMR8539, CNRS-Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France. We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction.

Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

Rust, H. W., Kallache, M., Schellnhuber, H.-J., and Kropp, J.: Confidence intervals for flood return level estimates using a bootstrap approach, in: In Extremis, edited by: Kropp, J. and Schellnhuber, H.-J., Springer, 61–81, 2011.; Rybski, D., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., and von Storch, H.: Long-term persistence in the climate and the detection problem, Geophy. Res. Lett., 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025591, 2006.; Salameh, T., Drobinski, P., Vrac, M., and Naveau, P.: Statistical downscaling of near-surface wind over complex terrain in southern France, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 103, 243–256, 2009.; Sanchez-Gomez, E. and Terray, L.: Large-scale atmospheric dynamics and local intense precipitation episodes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24711, doi:10.1029/2005GL023990, 2005.; Samuelson, P.: A Synthesis of the Principle of Acceleration and the Multiplier, J. Political Econ., 47, 786–797, 1939.; Sato, K.-I.: Lévy Processes and Infinitely Divisible Distributions, Cambridge University Press, London, 486 pp., 1999.; Sauer, T., Yorke, J. A., and Casdagli, M.: Embedology, J. Stat. Phys., 65, 579–616, 1991.; Saunders, A. and Ghil, M.: A Boolean delay equation model of ENSO variability, Physica D, 160, 54–78, 2001.; Schlather, M.: Models for stationary max-stable random fields, Extremes, 5, 33–44, 2002.; Schlather, M.: RandomFields: Simulations and Analysis of Random Fields, R package version 1.3.28, 2006.; Schlather, M. and Tawn, J.: Inequalities for the extremal coefficients of multivariate extreme value distributions, Extremes, 1, 87–102, 2009.; Schlather, M. and Tawn, J. A.: A dependence measure for multivariate and spatial extreme values: Properties and inference, Biometrika, 90, 139–156, 2003.; Smith, R. L.: Maximum-likelihood estimation in a class of nonregular cases, Biometrika, 72, 67–90, 1985.; Schmidli, J., Goodess, C., Frei, C., Haylock, M., Hundecha, Y., Ribalaygua, J., and Schmith, T.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation: An evaluation and comparison of scenarios for the European Alps, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., D04105, doi:10.1029/2005JD007026, 2007.; Schnur, R. and Lettenmaier, D.: A case study of statistical downscaling in Australia using weather classification by recursive partitioning, J. Hydrol., 212–213, 362–379, 1998.; Scholz, C. H.: The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.; New York, 2nd edn., 471 pp., 2002.; Schölzel, C. and Friederichs, P.: Multivariate non-normally distributed random variables in climate research – introduction to the copula approach, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 761–772, doi:10.5194/npg-15-761-2008, 2008.; Semenov, M. and Barrow, E.: Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios, Clim. Res., 35, 397–414, 1997.; Semenov, M., Brooks, R., Barrow, E., and Richardson, C.: Comparison of the WGEN and the LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diverse climates, Clim. Res., 10, 95–107, 1998.; Serinaldi, F.: Comment on Multivariate non-normally distributed random variables in climate research – introduction to the copula approach by C. Schölzel and P. Friederichs, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 761–772, 2008, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 16, 331–332, doi:10.5194/npg-16-331-2009, 2009.; Simonnet, E., Ghil, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Homoclinic bifurcations in the quasi-geostrophic double-gyre circulation, J. Mar. Res., 63, 931–956, 2005.; Slutsky, E.: The summation of random causes as a source of cyclic processes, {III}(1), Conjuncture Institute, Moscow, Econometrica, 5, 105–146, 1927.; Smale, S.: Differentiable dynamical systems, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc., 73, 747–817, 1967.; Smith, H. F.: An empirical law describing heterogeneity in the yields of acricultural crops, J. Agric. Sci., 28, 1–23, 1938.; Smith, R. L.: Extreme value analysis of environmental time series: An application to trend detection in ground-level ozone, Stat. Sci., 4, 367–393, 1989


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Fluctuations in a Quasi-stationary Shall... (by )
  • Entropy-information Perspective to Radio... (by )
  • Contribution of 3-d Electrical Resistivi... (by )
  • Solitary Waves Observed in the Auroral Z... (by )
  • The Effect of a Localized Geothermal Hea... (by )
  • Faults Self-organized by Repeated Earthq... (by )
  • Forecast Improvement in Lorenz 96 System... (by )
  • Estimation of Permeability of a Sandston... (by )
  • Review: Visual Analytics of Climate Netw... (by )
  • Site Effect Classification Based on Micr... (by )
  • Multivariate Non-normally Distributed Ra... (by )
  • Linear and Nonlinear Post-processing of ... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.