World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Objectified Quantification of Uncertainties in Bayesian Atmospheric Inversions : Volume 7, Issue 4 (29/07/2014)

By Berchet, A.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004009662
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 51
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Objectified Quantification of Uncertainties in Bayesian Atmospheric Inversions : Volume 7, Issue 4 (29/07/2014)  
Author: Berchet, A.
Volume: Vol. 7, Issue 4
Language: English
Subject: Science, Geoscientific, Model
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Pison, I., Bousquet, P., Chevallier, F., Bonne, J., Berchet, A., & Paris, J. (2014). Objectified Quantification of Uncertainties in Bayesian Atmospheric Inversions : Volume 7, Issue 4 (29/07/2014). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. Classical Bayesian atmospheric inversions process atmospheric observations and prior emissions, the two being connected by an observation operator picturing mainly the atmospheric transport. These inversions rely on prescribed errors in the observations, the prior emissions and the observation operator. At the meso-scale, inversion results are very sensitive to the prescribed error distributions, which are not accurately known. The classical Bayesian framework experiences difficulties in quantifying the impact of mis-specified error distributions on the optimized fluxes. In order to cope with this issue, we rely on recent research results and enhance the classical Bayesian inversion framework through a marginalization on all the plausible errors that can be prescribed in the system. The marginalization consists in computing inversions for all possible error distributions weighted by the probability of occurence of the error distributions. The posterior distribution of the fluxes calculated by the marginalization is complicated and not explicitly describable. We then carry out a Monte-Carlo sampling relying on an approximation of the probability of occurence of the error distributions. This approximation is deduced from the well-tested algorithm of the Maximum of Likelihood. Thus, the marginalized inversion relies on an automatic objectified diagnosis of the error statistics, without any prior knowledge about the matrices. It robustly includes the uncertainties on the error distributions, contrary to what is classically done with frozen expert-knowledge error statistics. Some expert knowledge is still used in the method for the choice of emission aggregation pattern and sampling protocol in order to reduce the computation costs of the method. The relevance and the robustness of the method is tested on a case study: the inversion of methane surface fluxes at the meso-scale with real observation sites in Eurasia. Observing System Simulation Experiments are carried out with different transport patterns, flux distributions and total prior amounts of emitted gas. The method proves to consistently reproduce the known truth in most cases, with satisfactory tolerance intervals. Additionnaly, the method explicitly provides influence scores and posterior correlation matrices. An in-depth interpretation of the inversion results is then possible. The more objective quantification of the influence of the observations on the fluxes proposed here allows us to evaluate the impact of the observation network on the characterization of the surface fluxes. The explicit correlations between emission regions reveal the mis-separated regions, hence the typical temporal and spatial scales the inversion can analyze. These scales proved to be consistent with the chosen aggregation patterns.

Summary
Objectified quantification of uncertainties in Bayesian atmospheric inversions

Excerpt
Ahmadov, R., Gerbig, C., Kretschmer, R., Koerner, S., Neininger, B., Dolman, A. J., and Sarrat, C.: Mesoscale covariance of transport and CO2 fluxes: evidence from observations and simulations using the WRF-VPRM coupled atmosphere-biosphere model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D22107, doi:10.1029/2007JD008552, 2007.; Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, National Geophysical Data Center, Marine Geology and Geophysics Division, 2009.; Berchet, A., Pison, I., Chevallier, F., Bousquet, P., Conil, S., Geever, M., Laurila, T., Lavrič, J., Lopez, M., Moncrieff, J., Necki, J., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steinbacher, M., and Tarniewicz, J.: Towards better error statistics for atmospheric inversions of methane surface fluxes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7115–7132, doi:10.5194/acp-13-7115-2013, 2013.; Bergamaschi, P., Krol, M., Dentener, F., Vermeulen, A., Meinhardt, F., Graul, R., Ramonet, M., Peters, W., and Dlugokencky, E. J.: Inverse modelling of national and European CH4 emissions using the atmospheric zoom model TM5, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2431–2460, doi:10.5194/acp-5-2431-2005, 2005.; Bocquet, M.: Toward optimal choices of control space representation for geophysical data assimilation, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 2331–2348, 2009.; Bergamaschi, P., Krol, M., Meirink, J. F., Dentener, F., Segers, A., van Aardenne, J., Monni, S., Vermeulen, A. T., Schmidt, M., Ramonet, M., Yver, C., Meinhardt, F., Nisbet, E. G., Fisher, R. E., O'Doherty, S., and Dlugokencky, E. J.: Inverse modeling of European CH4 emissions 2001–2006, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D22309, doi:10.1029/2010JD014180, 2010.; Bergamaschi, P., Houweling, S., Segers, A., Krol, M., Frankenberg, C., Scheepmaker, R. A., Dlugokencky, E., Wofsy, S. C., Kort, E. A., Sweeney, C., Schuck, T., Brenninkmeijer, C., Chen, H., Beck, V., and Gerbig, C.: Atmospheric CH4 in the first decade of the 21st century: inverse modeling analysis using SCIAMACHY satellite retrievals and NOAA surface measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 7350–7369, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50480, 2013.; Bocquet, M., Wu, L., and Chevallier, F.: Bayesian design of control space for optimal assimilation of observations. Part I: Consistent multiscale formalism, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1340–1356, 2011.; Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Peylin, P., Ramonet, M., and Monfray, P.: Inverse modeling of annual atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks: 1. Method and control inversion, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 26161–26178, 1999.; Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Miller, J. B., Dlugokencky, E. J., Hauglustaine, D. A., Prigent, C., van der Werf, G. R., Peylin, P., Brunke, E.-G., Carouge, C., Langenfelds, R. L., Lathière, J., Papa, F., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L. P., Tyler, S. C., and White, J.: Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439–443, 2006.; Broquet, G., Chevallier, F., Rayner, P., Aulagnier, C., Pison, I., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Vermeulen, A. T., and Ciais, P.: A European summertime CO2 biogenic flux inversion at mesoscale from continuous in situ mixing ratio measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D23303, doi:10.1029/2011JD016202, 2011.; Cardinali, C., Pezzulli, S., and Andersson, E.: Influence-matrix diagnostic of a data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Met

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Partially Coupled Spin-up of the Mpi-esm... (by )
  • Simulation of Variability in Atmospheric... (by )
  • Intercomparison of Temperature Trends in... (by )
  • Evaluation of the Parametrized Transport... (by )
  • A Standard Test Case Suite for Two-dimen... (by )
  • Incorporation of the C-goldstein Efficie... (by )
  • Capabilities and Performance of Elmer/Ic... (by )
  • An Approach to Computing Direction Relat... (by )
  • Development of a Plume-in-grid Model for... (by )
  • Set-up of the Pmip3 Paleoclimate Experim... (by )
  • Probabilistic Calibration of a Greenland... (by )
  • A Distributed Computing Approach to Impr... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.