World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

A Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin : Volume 11, Issue 4 (09/07/2007)

By Christensen, N. S.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004010168
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 18
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: A Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin : Volume 11, Issue 4 (09/07/2007)  
Author: Christensen, N. S.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 4
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Lettenmaier, D. P., & Christensen, N. S. (2007). A Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin : Volume 11, Issue 4 (09/07/2007). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195, USA. Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin were assessed using a multimodel ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and derived streamflows and reservoir system performance were assessed through comparison with current climate simulations for the 1950–1999 historical period. For each of the 11 GCMs, two emissions scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B1, corresponding to relatively unconstrained growth in emissions, and elimination of global emissions increases by 2100) were represented. Results for the A2 and B1 climate scenarios were divided into three periods: 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The mean temperature change averaged over the 11 ensembles for the Colorado basin for the A2 emission scenario ranged from 1.2 to 4.4°C for periods 1–3, and for the B1 scenario from 1.3 to 2.7°C. Precipitation changes were modest, with ensemble mean changes ranging from −1 to −2% for the A2 scenario, and from +1 to −1% for the B1 scenario. An analysis of seasonal precipitation patterns showed that most GCMs had modest reductions in summer precipitation and increases in winter precipitation. Derived April 1 snow water equivalent declined for all ensemble members and time periods, with maximum (ensemble mean) reductions of 38% for the A2 scenario in period 3. Runoff changes were mostly the result of a dominance of increased evapotranspiration over the seasonal precipitation shifts, with ensemble mean runoff changes of −1, −6, and −11% for the A2 ensembles, and 0, −7, and −8% for the B1 ensembles. These hydrological changes were reflected in reservoir system performance. Average total basin reservoir storage and average hydropower production generally declined, however there was a large range across the ensembles. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the Lower Basin were reduced for all periods and both emissions scenarios in the ensemble mean. The fraction of years in which shortages occurred increased by approximately 20% by period 3 for both emissions scenarios.

A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin

Brown, R. D.: Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915–97, J. Climate, 13, 2339–2355, 2000.; Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer, R. N.: Effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin, Climatic Change, 62, 337–363, 2004.; Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J. A., Cooke, W. F., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A., Durachta, J. W., Findell, K. L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H. C., Lin, S. J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Spelman, M. J., Stern, W. F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643–674, 2006.; Gleick, P. H.: Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases, Climatic Change, 10, 10 137–10 161, 1987.; Diansky, N. A. and Volodin, E. M.: Simulation of present-day climate with a coupled Atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. (Engl. Transl.), 38, 732–747, 2002.; Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H. T., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, 2000.; Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E.A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I.: The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model, CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No 60, CSIRO. Division of Atmospheric Research, Victoria, Australia, 130~pp., 2002.; Hamlet, A. F. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin, J. Amer. W. Resourc. Assn., 35, 1597–1623, 1999.; Hundley Jr., N.: Water in the West, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, 1975.; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Bias, edited by: Houghton, J. T. and Ding, Y., Cambridge, Cambridge UP, 2001.; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Special report on emission scenarios, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2000.; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 22 p., 2007.; IPSL: The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4', Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l'Environnement Global, Paris, France, 73 pp., 2005.; Jungclaus, J. H., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Keenlyside, N., Luo, J.-J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U., and Roeckner, E.: Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the AOGCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Climate 19, 3952–3972, 2006.; K-1 model developers: K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description, K-1 technical report, 1, edited by: Hasumi, H. and Emori, S., Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 34~pp., 2004.; Lettenmaier, D. P., Brettman, K. L., Vail, L. W., Yabusaki, S. B., and Scott, M. J.: Sensitivity of Pacific Northwest water resources to global warming Northwest Environ. J., 8, 265–283, 1992.; Loaiciga, H. A., Valdes, J. B., Vogel, R., Garvey, J., and Schwarz, H.: Global warming and the hydrologic cycle, J. Hydrol., 174, 83–127, 1996.; Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Bur


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Thermal Remote Sensing from Airborne Hyp... (by )
  • State Updating of a Distributed Hydrolog... (by )
  • Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater ... (by )
  • Hydroclimatic Regimes: a Distributed Wat... (by )
  • Hydrologic Landscape Classification Eval... (by )
  • Cycling of Nutrient Base Cations in a Tw... (by )
  • Coupling a Groundwater Model with a Land... (by )
  • Iterative Approach to Modeling Subsurfac... (by )
  • Assessing Student Understanding of Physi... (by )
  • Model Study of the Impacts of Future Cli... (by )
  • The Application of Gis Based Decision-tr... (by )
  • Stratified Analysis of Satellite Imagery... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.