World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

The Impact of Climate Mitigation on Projections of Future Drought : Volume 17, Issue 6 (27/06/2013)

By Taylor, I. H.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004010786
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 20
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: The Impact of Climate Mitigation on Projections of Future Drought : Volume 17, Issue 6 (27/06/2013)  
Author: Taylor, I. H.
Volume: Vol. 17, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2013
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Taylor, I. H., Mcneall, D., Harris, G. R., Mccoll, L., Burke, E., & Falloon, P. D. (2013). The Impact of Climate Mitigation on Projections of Future Drought : Volume 17, Issue 6 (27/06/2013). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK. Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving wide-reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability, and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Our study considers both climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, and future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty). Four drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardised Runoff Index (SRI)) are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions scenarios using monthly model output from a 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth System model, for the baseline period 1961–1990, and the period 2070–2099 (the 2080s). We consider where there are statistically significant increases or decreases in the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the baseline. Despite the large range of uncertainty in drought projections for many regions, projections for some regions have a clear signal, with uncertainty associated with the magnitude of change rather than direction. For instance, a significant increase in time spent in drought is generally projected for the Amazon, Central America and South Africa whilst projections for northern India consistently show significant decreases in time spent in drought. Whilst the patterns of changes in future drought were similar between scenarios, climate mitigation, represented by the RCP2.6 scenario, tended to reduce future changes in drought. In general, climate mitigation reduced the area over which there was a significant increase in drought but had little impact on the area over which there was a significant decrease in time spent in drought.

Summary
The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought

Excerpt
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds.): Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp., 2008.; Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Jones, C. D.: The role of ecosystem–atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 157–175, 2004.; Betts, R. A., Boucher, O., Collins, M., Cox, P. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Hemming, D. L., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide, Nat. Lett., 448, 1037–1042, doi:10.1038/nature06045, 2007.; Booth, B. B. B., Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Totterdell, I. J., Cox, P. M., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Betts, R. A., Harris, G. R., and Lloyd, J.: High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002, 2012.; Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E., Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P., and Sexton, D. M. H.: Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, doi:10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013.; Burke, E. J.: Understanding the Sensitivity of Different Drought Metrics to the Drivers of Drought under Increased Atmospheric CO2, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 1378–1394, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1386.1, 2011.; Burke, E. J. and Brown, S. J.: Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 292–299, doi:10.1175/2007JHM929.1, 2008.; Burke, E. J., Brown, S. J., and Christidis, N.: Modelling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model, J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 1113–1125, 2006.; Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Bhaskaran, B., Harris, G. R., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings. A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1737–1766, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0, 2011.; Confalonieri, U., Menne, B., Akhtar, R., Ebi, K. L., Hauengue, M., Kovats, R. S., Revich, B., and Woodward, A.: Human health, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 391–431, 2007.; Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Bunton, C. B., Essery, R. L. H., Rowntree, P. R., and Smith, J. : The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 15, 183–203, 1999.; Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Jones, C. D.: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 137–156, 2004.; Dai, A.: Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12115, doi:10.1029/2010JD015541, 2011.; Davie, J. C. S., Falloon, P. D., Kahana, R., Dankers, R., Betts, R., Portmann, F. T., Clark, D. B., Itoh, A., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Fekete, B., Tessler, Z., Liu, X., Tang, Q., Hagemann

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Matching Ers Scatterometer Based Soil Mo... (by )
  • Influence of Aquifer Heterogeneity on Ka... (by )
  • Comparison of Catchment Grouping Methods... (by )
  • Physical Disaggregation of Numerical Mod... (by )
  • Skill and Relative Economic Value of Med... (by )
  • Groundwater Surface Mapping Informs Sour... (by )
  • Extended Power-law Scaling of Heavy-tail... (by )
  • Technical Note: Variability of Flow Disc... (by )
  • A Global Water Scarcity Assessment Under... (by )
  • Modeling Water Resources Trends in Middl... (by )
  • Modeling Subsurface Transport in Extensi... (by )
  • Spatial Distribution of Solute Leaching ... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.