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Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change on Murray Hotham Catchment of Western Australia: a Projection of Rainfall-runoff for Future Water Resources Planning : Volume 10, Issue 10 (02/10/2013)

By Islam, S. A.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004011531
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 50
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change on Murray Hotham Catchment of Western Australia: a Projection of Rainfall-runoff for Future Water Resources Planning : Volume 10, Issue 10 (02/10/2013)  
Author: Islam, S. A.
Volume: Vol. 10, Issue 10
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Islam, S. A., Bari, M. A., & M. F. Anwa, A. H. (2013). Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change on Murray Hotham Catchment of Western Australia: a Projection of Rainfall-runoff for Future Water Resources Planning : Volume 10, Issue 10 (02/10/2013). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Civil Engineering, School of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia. Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across South West Western Australia (SWWA) has drawn attention about climate change impact on water resources and its availability in this region. In this paper, hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment in SWWA is investigated using multi-model ensemble approach. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias corrected rainfall data from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3% with respect to observed past (1961–1980) and resulting runoff reduction was found 14%. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall part compared to the low rainfall part. Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected resulting significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed through plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for observed and projected period. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.

Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment of Western Australia: a projection of rainfall-runoff for future water resources planning

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