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Infrastructure Sufficiency in Meeting Water Demand Under Climate-induced Socio-hydrological Transition in the Urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil : Volume 11, Issue 3 (07/03/2014)

By Ribeiro Neto, A.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004012040
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 30
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Infrastructure Sufficiency in Meeting Water Demand Under Climate-induced Socio-hydrological Transition in the Urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil : Volume 11, Issue 3 (07/03/2014)  
Author: Ribeiro Neto, A.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Scott, C. A., Lima, E. A., G. L. Montenegr, S. M., Neto, A. R., & Cirilo, J. A. (2014). Infrastructure Sufficiency in Meeting Water Demand Under Climate-induced Socio-hydrological Transition in the Urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil : Volume 11, Issue 3 (07/03/2014). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil. Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change especially in the arid and semi-arid tropics. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of reservoirs and related infrastructure to meet targets for water supply in the Capibaribe River Basin (CRB), in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now increasingly experiencing water-scarcity effects. As a result, rural populations in the CRB are concentrating around infrastructural water supplies in a socio-hydrological transition process that results from (a) hydroclimatic variability, (b) investment and assistance programs that may enhance but can also supplant local adaptive capacity, and (c) demographic trends driving urbanization of the state capital, Recife, which mirror urban growth across Brazil. In the CRB, demands are currently composed of 69.1% urban potable water, 14.3% industrial, 16.6% irrigation (with ecosystem-service demands met by residual flow). Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 31.8% translated to streamflow reduction of 67.4% under present reservoir operations rules. The increasing demand due to population was also taken into account. This would entail severe water supply reductions for human consumption (−45.3%) and irrigation (−78.0%) by the end of the 21st century. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of climate change, urbanization, and industrialization for water supply under socio-hydrological conditions of scarcity.

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil

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