World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Model Study of the Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Hydrology of Ganges–brahmaputra–meghna (Gbm) Basin : Volume 11, Issue 6 (02/06/2014)

By Masood, M.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004012119
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 45
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Model Study of the Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Hydrology of Ganges–brahmaputra–meghna (Gbm) Basin : Volume 11, Issue 6 (02/06/2014)  
Author: Masood, M.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Yeh, P. J., Hanasaki, N., Takeuchi, K., & Masood, M. (2014). Model Study of the Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Hydrology of Ganges–brahmaputra–meghna (Gbm) Basin : Volume 11, Issue 6 (02/06/2014). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), PWRI, Tsukuba, Japan. The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979–2003), near-future (2015–2039) and far-future (2075–2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November–April) than that in wet season (May–October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological response which indicates higher possibility of flood occurrence in this basin. The uncertainty due to the specification of key model parameters in predicting hydrologic quantities, has also been analysed explicitly in this study and found that the uncertainty in estimation of runoff, evapotranspiration and net radiation is relatively less. However, the uncertainty in estimation of soil moisture is quite large (coefficient of variation ranges from 11 to 33% for three basins). It is significant in land use management, agriculture in particular and highlights the necessity of physical observation of soil moisture.

Summary
Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) basin

Excerpt
Chowdhury, M. R.: An assessment of flood forecasting in Bangladesh: the experience of the 1998 flood, Nat. Hazards, 22, 139–163, 2000.; Biemans, H., Speelman, L. H., Ludwig, F., Moors, E. J., Wiltshire, A. J., Kumar, P., Gerten, D., and Kabat, P.: Future water resources for food production in five South Asian river basins and potential for adaptation – a modeling study, Sci. Total Environ., 468–469, Supplement, S117–S131, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.05.092, 2013.; Carpenter, T. M. and Georgakakos, K. P.: Intercomparison of lumped vs. distributed hydrologic model ensemble simulations on operational forecast scales, J. Hydrol., 329, 174–185, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.02.013, 2006.; Chowdhury, M. R. and Ward, M. N.: Hydro-meteorological variability in the greater Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basins, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1495–1508, doi:10.1002/joc.1076, 2004.; Chowdhury, M. R. and Ward, M. N.: Seasonal flooding in Bangladesh – variability and predictability, Hydrol. Process., 21, 335–347, doi:10.1002/hyp.6236, 2007.; Endo, H., Kitoh, A., Ose, T., Mizuta, R., and Kusunoki, S.: Future changes and uncertainties in Asian precipitation simulated by multiphysics and multi–sea surface temperature ensemble experiments with high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCMs), J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16118, doi:10.1029/2012jd017874, 2012.; FAO-AQUASTAT: Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna River Basin, 1, available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/basins/gbm/index.stm (last access: 19 April 2014), 2014.; Gain, A. K., Immerzeel, W. W., Sperna Weiland, F. C., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1537–1545, doi:10.5194/hess-15-1537-2011, 2011.; Ghosh, S. and Dutta, S.: Impact of climate change on flood characteristics in Brahmaputra basin using a macro-scale distributed hydrological model, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 121, 637–657, doi:10.1007/s12040-012-0181-y, 2012.; Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P., and Yeh, P.: Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869–884, doi:10.1175/2011jhm1324.1, 2011.; Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Voß, F., Eisner, S., Chen, C., Hagemann, S., and Ludwig, F.: Effects of climate model radiation, humidity and wind estimates on hydrological simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 305–318, doi:10.5194/hess-16-305-2012, 2012.; Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1007–1025, doi:10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008, 2008.; Hanasaki, N., Saito, Y., Chaiyasaen, C., Champathong, A., Ekkawatpanit, C., Saphaokham, S., Sukhapunnaphan, T., Sumdin, S., and Thongduang, J.: A

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Assessing the Impact of Uncertainty on F... (by )
  • Simulation and Validation of Subsurface ... (by )
  • Kalman Filters for Assimilating Near-sur... (by )
  • Uncertainties in Selected River Water Qu... (by )
  • Stream Water Quality in Acid Sensitive U... (by )
  • Water Discharge Estimates from Large Rad... (by )
  • Establishing the Dominant Source of Unce... (by )
  • Dynamics of Resource Production and Util... (by )
  • Linking Soil Moisture Balance and Source... (by )
  • Characterization of Spatial Heterogeneit... (by )
  • From Runoff to Rainfall: Inverse Rainfal... (by )
  • Acid-base Characteristics of the Grass P... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.