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Transferring Model Uncertainty Estimates from Gauged to Ungauged Catchments : Volume 11, Issue 7 (14/07/2014)

By Bourgin, F.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004012188
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 28
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Transferring Model Uncertainty Estimates from Gauged to Ungauged Catchments : Volume 11, Issue 7 (14/07/2014)  
Author: Bourgin, F.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 7
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

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Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Bourgin, F., & Oudin, L. (2014). Transferring Model Uncertainty Estimates from Gauged to Ungauged Catchments : Volume 11, Issue 7 (14/07/2014). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Irstea, UR HBAN, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, CS 10030, 92761 Antony Cedex, France. Predicting streamflow hydrographs in ungauged catchments is a challenging issue, and accompanying the estimates with realistic uncertainty bounds is an even more complex task. In this paper, we present a method to transfer model uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments and we test it over a set of 907 catchments located in France. We evaluate the quality of the uncertainty estimates based on three expected qualities: reliability, sharpness, and overall skill. Our results show that the method holds interesting perspectives, providing in most cases reliable and sharp uncertainty bounds at ungauged locations.

Summary
Transferring model uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments

Excerpt
Andréassian, V., Lerat, J., Loumagne, C., Mathevet, T., Michel, C., Oudin, L., and Perrin, C.: What is really undermining hydrologic science today?, Hydrol. Process., 21, 2819–2822, doi:10.1002/hyp.6854, 2007.; Beven, K. and Freer, J.: Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrol., 249, 11–29, 2001.; Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24, 43–69, doi:10.1080/02626667909491834, 1979.; Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Wagener, T., Viglione, A., and Savenije, H.: Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis Across Processes, Places and Scales, Cambridge University Press, 2013.; Bulygina, N., McIntyre, N., and Wheater, H.: Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall–runoff model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes, Water Resour. Res., 47, W02503, doi:10.1029/2010wr009240, 2011.; Bulygina, N., Ballard, C., McIntyre, N., O'Donnell, G., and Wheater, H.: Integrating different types of information into hydrological model parameter estimation: application to ungauged catchments and land use scenario analysis, Water Resour. Res., 48, W06519, doi:10.1029/2011wr011207, 2012.; Duan, Q., Ajami, N. K., Gao, X., and Sorooshian, S.: Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging, Adv. Water Resour., 30, 1371–1386, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.11.014, 2007.; Ewen, J. and O'Donnell, G.: Prediction intervals for rainfall–runoff models: raw error method and split-sample validation, Hydrol. Res., 43, 637–648, doi:10.2166/nh.2012.038, 2012.; Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E.: Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, 359–378, doi:10.1198/016214506000001437, 2007.; Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.; Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Bloeschl, G., McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J. W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M. P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J. E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H. V., Hughes, D. A., Hut, R. W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P. A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H. C., Woods, R. A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C.: A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)a review, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 1198–1255, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.803183, 2013.; Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D. A., and Wagener, T.: Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 57, 1000–1019, doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.690881, 2012.; Liu, Y. Q. and Gupta, H. V.: Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: toward an integrated data assimilation framework, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07401, doi:10.1029/2006wr005756, 2007.; Mathevet, T.: Quels modèles pluie-débit globaux au pas de temps horaire ? Développements empiriques et comparaison de modèles sur un large échantillon de bassins versants, Ph. D. thesis, Paris, 2005.; Mathevet, T., Michel, C., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: A bounded version of the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion for better model assessment on large sets of basins, IAHS-AISH Publication, 211–219, Wallingford

 

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