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Analysis of the French Insurance Market Exposure to Floods: a Stochastic Model Combining River Overflow and Surface Runoff : Volume 1, Issue 4 (11/07/2013)

By Moncoulon, D.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004018946
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 45
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Analysis of the French Insurance Market Exposure to Floods: a Stochastic Model Combining River Overflow and Surface Runoff : Volume 1, Issue 4 (11/07/2013)  
Author: Moncoulon, D.
Volume: Vol. 1, Issue 4
Language: English
Subject: Science, Natural, Hazards
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Labat, D., Poulard, C., Leblois, E., Onfroy, T., Aji, S., Ardon, J.,...Rémy, A. (2013). Analysis of the French Insurance Market Exposure to Floods: a Stochastic Model Combining River Overflow and Surface Runoff : Volume 1, Issue 4 (11/07/2013). Retrieved from

Description: CCR, 31 rue de Courcelles, 75008 Paris, France. The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible but not yet occurred flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995–2012 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90% of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of CCR claim database has shown that approximately 45% of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45% outside. 10% other percent are due to seasurge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958–2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (MACIF) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

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