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Increasing the Horizontal Resolution of Ensemble Forecasts at Cmc : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)

By Pellerin, G.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019564
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 6
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Increasing the Horizontal Resolution of Ensemble Forecasts at Cmc : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)  
Author: Pellerin, G.
Volume: Vol. 10, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Girard, C., Lefaivre, L., Houtekamer, P., & Pellerin, G. (-0001). Increasing the Horizontal Resolution of Ensemble Forecasts at Cmc : Volume 10, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001). Retrieved from

Description: Canadian Meteorological Centre, Montreal, Canada. Ensemble forecasts are run operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August 1999. The method of producing the perturbed analyses consists of running independent assimilation cycles that use perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models, mainly different in their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is then used to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble output has been used to generate several products. In view of increasing computing facilities, the ensemble prediction system horizontal resolution was increased to TL149 in June 2001. Heights at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure maps are regularly used. Charts of precipitation with the probability of precipitation being above various thresholds are also produced at each run. The probabilistic forecast of the 24-h accumulated precipitation has shown skill as demonstrated by the relative operating characteristic (ROC). Verifications of the ensemble forecasts will be presented.

Increasing the horizontal resolution of ensemble forecasts at CMC


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