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A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model Based on Cellular Automata and Information Theory : Volume 12, Issue 3 (15/03/2005)

By Jiménez, A.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019687
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 16
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model Based on Cellular Automata and Information Theory : Volume 12, Issue 3 (15/03/2005)  
Author: Jiménez, A.
Volume: Vol. 12, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Marfil, J. M., Posadas, A. M., & Jiménez, A. (2005). A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model Based on Cellular Automata and Information Theory : Volume 12, Issue 3 (15/03/2005). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Applied Physics, University of Almería, Spain. We try to obtain a spatio-temporal model of earthquakes occurrence based on Information Theory and Cellular Automata (CA). The CA supply useful models for many investigations in natural sciences; here, it have been used to establish temporal relations between the seismic events occurring in neighbouring parts of the crust. The catalogue used is divided into time intervals and the region into cells, which are declared active or inactive by means of a certain energy release criterion (four criteria have been tested). A pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is given. A stochastic CA is constructed with the patterns to simulate their spatio-temporal evolution. The interaction between the cells is represented by the neighbourhood (2-D and 3-D models have been tried). The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is drawn up for the different energy releases. The method has been applied to the Iberian Peninsula catalogue from 1970 to 2001. For 2-D, the best neighbourhood has been the Moore's one of radius 1; the von Neumann's 3-D also gives hazard maps and takes into account the depth of the events. Gutenberg-Richter's law and Hurst's analysis have been obtained for the data as a test of the catalogue. Our results are consistent with previous studies both of seismic hazard and stress conditions in the zone, and with the seismicity occurred after 2001.

A probabilistic seismic hazard model based on cellular automata and information theory


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