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Using Earthquake Intensities to Forecast Earthquake Occurrence Times : Volume 13, Issue 5 (31/10/2006)

By Holliday, J. R.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019792
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 9
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Using Earthquake Intensities to Forecast Earthquake Occurrence Times : Volume 13, Issue 5 (31/10/2006)  
Author: Holliday, J. R.
Volume: Vol. 13, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Rundle, J. B., Tiampo, K. F., Holliday, J. R., & Turcotte, D. L. (2006). Using Earthquake Intensities to Forecast Earthquake Occurrence Times : Volume 13, Issue 5 (31/10/2006). Retrieved from

Description: Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA. It is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world.

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

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