World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007)

By Von Hardenberg, J.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004019817
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 7
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007)  
Author: Von Hardenberg, J.
Volume: Vol. 14, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Rebora, N., Provenzale, A., Ferraris, L., & Hardenberg, J. V. (2007). Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007). Retrieved from

Description: ISAC-CNR, Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy. We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorological uncertainty associated with large-scale synoptic conditions (represented by the ensemble of dynamical forecasts) and of the uncertainty due to small-scale processes (represented by the set of fields generated by stochastic downscaling). We show that, in current operational configurations, small- and large-scale uncertainties have roughly the same weight. These results can be used to pinpoint the specific components of the prediction chain where a better estimate of forecast uncertainty is needed.

Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling

Adlerman, E J. and Droegemeier, K K.: The sensitivity of numerically simulated cyclic mesocyclogenesis to variations in model physical and computational parameters, Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2671–2691, 2002.; Bell, T L.: A space-time stochastic model of rainfall for satellite remote sensing studies, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9631–9643, 1987.; Buizza, R. and Palmer, T N.: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503–2518, 1998.; Du, J., Mullen, S L., and Sanders, F.: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2427–2459, 1997.; Epstein, E N.: Stochastic Dynamic Prediction, Tellus, 21, 739–759, 1969.; Ferraris, L., Rudari, R., and Siccardi, F.: The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the northern Mediterranean environment, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 714–727, 2002.; Ferraris, L., Gabellani, S., Rebora, N., and Provenzale, A.: A comparison of stochastic models for spatial rainfall downscaling, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1368, doi:10.1029/2003WR002504, 2003.; Frogner, I L. and Iversen, T.: High-resolution limited-area ensemble predictions based on low-resolution targeted singular vectors, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 1321–1341, 2002.; Hamill, T M. and Colucci, S J.: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312–1327, 1997.; Hamill, T M. and Colucci, S J.: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711–724, 1998.; Leith, C E.: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409–418, 1974.; Lovejoy, S. and Mandelbrot, B B.: Fractal properties of rain, and a fractal model, Tellus, 37 A, 209–232, 1985.; Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., Molteni, F., and Buizza, R.: A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2095–2115, 2001.; Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., and Paccagnella, T.: Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 315–322, 2004.; Marsigli, C., Boccanera, F., Montani, A., and Paccagnella, T.: The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 527–536, 2005.; Menabde, M., Seed, A., Harris, D., and Austin, G.: Self-similar random fields and rainfall simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 102D, 13 509–13 515, 1997.; Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T N., and Petroliagis, T.: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 73–119, 1996.; Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., and Paccagnella, T.: A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2069–2094, 2001.; Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., and Buizza, R.: Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 8, 387–399, 2001.; Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., and Buizza, R.: The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 10, 261–274, 2003.; Palmer, T.: Predicting uncertainty in forecasted weather and climate, Rep. Prog. Physics, 125, 71–116, 2000.; Palmer, T N.: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 49–65, 1993.; Palmer, T N.: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models, Quart. J. Roy. Me


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Fourier Spectrum and Shape Evolution of ... (by )
  • Thin Layer Shearing of a Highly Plastic ... (by )
  • The Soverato Flood in Southern Italy: Pe... (by )
  • Estimating Time Delays for Constructing ... (by )
  • Comparison Between Local Ensemble Transf... (by )
  • Particle Acceleration in Tangential Disc... (by )
  • Permanent Bedforms in a Theoretical Mode... (by )
  • Model of Strong Stationary Vortex Turbul... (by )
  • Verification of Intense Precipitation Fo... (by )
  • On the Data-driven Inference of Modulato... (by )
  • Lagrangian Velocity Statistics of Direct... (by )
  • Variability of Magnetic Field Spectra in... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.