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Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007)

By Von Hardenberg, J.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019817
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 7
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007)  
Author: Von Hardenberg, J.
Volume: Vol. 14, Issue 3
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2007
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Rebora, N., Provenzale, A., Ferraris, L., & Hardenberg, J. V. (2007). Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, Issue 3 (22/05/2007). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: ISAC-CNR, Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy. We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorological uncertainty associated with large-scale synoptic conditions (represented by the ensemble of dynamical forecasts) and of the uncertainty due to small-scale processes (represented by the set of fields generated by stochastic downscaling). We show that, in current operational configurations, small- and large-scale uncertainties have roughly the same weight. These results can be used to pinpoint the specific components of the prediction chain where a better estimate of forecast uncertainty is needed.

Summary
Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling

Excerpt
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