World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Verification of Intense Precipitation Forecasts from Single Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems : Volume 8, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)

By Atger, F.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004019995
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 17
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Verification of Intense Precipitation Forecasts from Single Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems : Volume 8, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001)  
Author: Atger, F.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
-0001
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Atger, F. (-0001). Verification of Intense Precipitation Forecasts from Single Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems : Volume 8, Issue 6 (30/11/-0001). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Météo-France, Toulouse, France. The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72 h/ + 96 h forecasts. The verification procedure consists of taking into account all precipitation amounts that are predicted in the vicinity of an observation in order to compute spatial, multi-event contingency tables. A probabilistic forecast from an ensemble can thus be compared to a probabilistic forecast from a single model run. The main results are the following: (1) The performance of the forecasts increases with the precipitation threshold. High levels of potential value reflect high hit rates that are obtained at the expense of a high frequency of false alarms. (2) The ECMWF ensemble performs better than a single forecast based on the same model, even when the resolution of the ensemble is lower. This is true for the NCEP ensemble as well, but only for morning precipitations. (3) The ECMWF ensemble performs better than the 5-member NCEP ensemble running at 12:00 UTC, even when the population of the former is reduced to 5 members. (4) The impact of reducing the population of the ECMWF ensemble is rather small. Differences between 51 members and 21 members are hardly significant. (5) A 2-member poorman ensemble consisting of the control forecasts of the ECMWF and the NCEP ensembles performs as well as the ECMWF ensemble for afternoon precipitations.

Summary
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Transformation of Internal Solitary Wave... (by )
  • Phase Space Vortices in Collisionless Pl... (by )
  • Reconnection Current Sheet Structure in ... (by )
  • Nonequilibrium Plankton Community Struct... (by )
  • Dust-acoustic Solitary Structures in Pla... (by )
  • Non-gaussian Interaction Information: Es... (by )
  • Monte Carlo Fixed-lag Smoothing in State... (by )
  • Physical Simulation of Resonant Wave Run... (by )
  • Calibration of a Radiocarbon Age : Volum... (by )
  • Closure of Multi-fluid and Kinetic Equat... (by )
  • A Novel Method for Analyzing the Process... (by )
  • Mhd Turbulence and Heating of the Open F... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.