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Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014)

By Uboldi, F.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004020097
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 32
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014)  
Author: Uboldi, F.
Volume: Vol. 1, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2014
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Trevisan, A., & Uboldi, F. (2014). Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014). Retrieved from http://hawaiilibrary.net/


Description
Description: Independent researcher, Milano, Italy. The properties of the multiple scale instabilities present in a non-hydrostatic forecast model are investigated. The model simulates intense convection episodes occurring in Northern Italy. A breeding technique is used to construct ensembles of perturbations of the model trajectories aimed to represent the instabilities that are responsible for error growth at various time and space scales. It is found that for initial errors of the order of present-day analysis error, error growth is mainly determined by intermediate scale instabilities, and that a non-negligible fraction of the forecast error can be explained by an ensemble of bred vectors of reasonable size. In contrast, when the initial error is much smaller, the spectrum of bred vectors representing the fast convective-scale instabilities becomes flat and the number of ensemble members needed to explain even a small fraction of the forecast error becomes extremely large. The conclusion is that as the analysis error is decreased, it becomes more and more computationally demanding to construct an ensemble that can describe the high-dimensional subspace of convective instabilities and that can thus be potentially useful for controlling the error growth.

Summary
Multiple scale error growth in a convection-resolving model

Excerpt
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