World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014)

By Uboldi, F.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004020097
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 32
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014)  
Author: Uboldi, F.
Volume: Vol. 1, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Nonlinear, Processes
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Trevisan, A., & Uboldi, F. (2014). Multiple Scale Error Growth in a Convection-resolving Model : Volume 1, Issue 1 (04/04/2014). Retrieved from

Description: Independent researcher, Milano, Italy. The properties of the multiple scale instabilities present in a non-hydrostatic forecast model are investigated. The model simulates intense convection episodes occurring in Northern Italy. A breeding technique is used to construct ensembles of perturbations of the model trajectories aimed to represent the instabilities that are responsible for error growth at various time and space scales. It is found that for initial errors of the order of present-day analysis error, error growth is mainly determined by intermediate scale instabilities, and that a non-negligible fraction of the forecast error can be explained by an ensemble of bred vectors of reasonable size. In contrast, when the initial error is much smaller, the spectrum of bred vectors representing the fast convective-scale instabilities becomes flat and the number of ensemble members needed to explain even a small fraction of the forecast error becomes extremely large. The conclusion is that as the analysis error is decreased, it becomes more and more computationally demanding to construct an ensemble that can describe the high-dimensional subspace of convective instabilities and that can thus be potentially useful for controlling the error growth.

Multiple scale error growth in a convection-resolving model

National Centers for Environmental Prediction,, last access: 26 March 2014.; Previsioni meteorologiche GLOBO BOLAM MOLOCH CNR-ISAC,, last access: 26 March 2014.; Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., and Raschendorfer, M.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011.; Buzzi, A., Tartaglione, N., and Malguzzi, P.: Numerical simulations of the 1994 Piedmont Flood: role of orography and moist processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 2369–2383, 2.0.CO;2>doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2369:NSOTPF>2.0.CO;2, 1998.; Buzzi, A., Davolio, S., D'Isidoro, M., and Malguzzi, P.: The impact of resolution and of MAP reanalysis on the simulations of heavy precipitation during MAP cases, Meteorol. Z., 13, 91–97, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0091, 2004.; Carrassi, A., Trevisan, A., and Uboldi, F.: Adaptive observations and assimilation in the unstable subspace by breeding on the data-assimilation system, Tellus A, 59, 101–113, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00210.x, 2007.; Carrassi, A., Ghil, M., Trevisan, A., and Uboldi, F.: Data assimilation as a nonlinear dynamical systems problem: stability and convergence of the prediction-assimilation system, Chaos, 18, 023112, doi:10.1063/1.2909862, 2008a.; Carrassi, A., Trevisan, A., Descamps, L., Talagrand, O., and Uboldi, F.: Controlling instabilities along a 3DVar analysis cycle by assimilating in the unstable subspace: a comparison with the EnKF, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 503–521, doi:10.5194/npg-15-503-2008, 2008b.; Claussnitzer, A., Schartner, T., Névir, P., Stephan, K., and Cubasch, U.: The data assimilation method Latent Heat Nudging assessed with the Dynamic State Index, Meteorol. Z., 20, 65–172, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0220, 2011.; Davolio, S., Buzzi, A., and Malguzzi, P.: Orographic influence on deep convection: case study and sensitivity experiments, Meteorol. Z., 15, 215–223, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0118, 2006.; Davolio, S., Buzzi, A., and Malguzzi, P.: Orographic triggering of long lived convection in three dimensions, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 103, 35–44, doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0332-5, 2009a.; Davolio, S., Mastrangelo, D., Miglietta, M. M., Drofa, O., Buzzi, A., and Malguzzi, P.: High resolution simulations of a flash flood near Venice, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1671–1678, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1671-2009, 2009b.; Dixon, M., Li, Z., Lean, H., Roberts, N., and Ballard, S.: Impact of data assimilation on forecasting convection over the United Kingdom using a high-resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1562–1584, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2561.1, 2009.; Hohenegger, C. and Schär, C.: Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1783–1793, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-11-1783, 200


Click To View

Additional Books

  • The Choice of Optimal Discrete Interacti... (by )
  • Flash-flood Forecasting by Means of Neur... (by )
  • Multivariate Autoregressive Modelling of... (by )
  • On Ion-cyclotron-resonance Heating of th... (by )
  • Enhancing Predictability by Increasing N... (by )
  • Nonlinear Instability and Sensitivity of... (by )
  • Scaling Property of Ideal Granitic Seque... (by )
  • Electromagnetic and Mechanical Control o... (by )
  • A Mechanism for Catastrophic Filter Dive... (by )
  • Two- and Three-dimensional Computation o... (by )
  • Statistical Analysis of Stromboli Vlp Tr... (by )
  • Self-sustained Vibrations in Volcanic Ar... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from Hawaii eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.